FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Markets
After which system liquidity opened at ₦215.74 billion this week, the bond auction settlement mopped up system liquidity to ₦33.55 billion. However, liquidity improved to levels around ₦170 billion towards the end of the week. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) soared by 1,819bps and 1,699bps to 20.19% and 19.79%, respectively.
Outlook: System liquidity should improve next week, as FAAC and FGN bond coupon inflows should bolster the status.
Treasury Bills
The trend in the treasury bills market this week was mixed. Activities in the first half of the week was weak, with a bearish backdrop evident around the long-dated papers. Subsequently, investors cherry-picked papers mostly at the short-dated of the curve, ensued by improved liquidity. Consequently, average yield fell by 180bps to 6.99%, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the liquidity status of the market to have a significant impact on stop rates at next week’s NTB auction.
FGN Bonds
The DMO conducted the second bond auction in Q3’2023, with stop rates significantly higher than the previous auction. The 2029s, 2033s, 2038s and 2053s recorded +135bps, +140bps, +110bps and +155bps to close at 13.85%, 15.00%, 15.20% and 15.85%, respectively.
Post-auction, market was bearish, with sell offs dominating at the short-dated papers. Thereafter, some buyers showed some buy interest, giving the attractive yield levels. Overall, bonds market closed bearish as average yield increased by 23bps to 13.97%, week-on-week.
Outlook: Next week, we anticipate a mixed to bullish theme, driven by the anticipated liquidity.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market had a mixed theme overall this week. It started off with a spillover effect on the back of the revelations in the recently released CBN’s financials. At mid-week, market rerouted its bias to a positive rally, in response to the $3 billion loan between NNPCL and Afrexim bank, as this is expected to allay fears linked to the availability of foreign currencies, to ease repatriation for foreign investors and increase FX supply for local transactions in the interim. Nevertheless, average yield settled at 11.13%, (+8bps) week-on-week.
Outlook: While we expect the US PMI data and domestic moving-events to impact activities in the early part of next week, the Jackson Hole Summit should take its toll on the market at the tail end of the week.
Equities
The Nigerian equity market closed on a bearish note, week on week, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) depreciated by c 0.93% to close at 64,721.09 points, while year-to-date return settled at c 26.28%. Selling interest on AIRTELAFRI (-5.30%), and SEPLAT (-1.35%) drove the negative trend this week. The NGX Industrial and Consumer Goods Indices appreciated by 0.37% and 2.39%, respectively. While the NGX Banking and Oil & Gas Indices depreciated by 2.06% and 1.13%, week-on-week. FBNH led both the volume charts and value charts with 272.66 million units and c. ₦ 5.25 billion, this week.
Outlook: We expect market to continue trade sideways but should be skewed more to the bears.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s I & E rate appreciated by ₦1.80 (0.15%) to $/₦739.52 compared to $/₦740.60 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
Commodities
Sluggish Chinese economic figures drove oil prices download. Although, market regain some of its losses after the country’s bank unexpectedly cut interest rate. Brent oil prices depreciated by c. 3.41% to $83.85 per barrel, week-on-week, while WTI depreciated by c 3.05% week-on-week to settle at US$80.29pb. Spot Gold depreciated by c. 1.27% to US$1,921.8 per ounce as of report time.
Outlook: We expect the fall in oil prices to ease next week.
