FIXED INCOME MARKETS
MONEY MARKETS
System liquidity decreased significantly, shifting from a deficit of c.₦612.03 billion yesterday to around ₦1,497.87 billion today. As a result, both the Open Repo Rate and Overnight Rate saw increases, rising by c.129bps and 142 bps, respectively, reaching 29.50% and 30.46%.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates to stay elevated.
Treasury Bills
Today, the NTB auction dominated market activity, resulting in a relatively quiet secondary market. There were only a few offers, particularly for long-dated papers. Overall, the session ended with minimal change, and the average mid-rate remained unchanged at 17.16%.
Outlook: We expect a mixed to bearish session tomorrow, given the uptick in stop rates and allotted size.
FGN Bonds
In the FGN local bonds market, trading remained subdued, influenced by limited buying and mild selling activity in specific bonds (2032s and 2034s). The average mid-yield remained relatively stable, hovering around 17.55%.
Outlook: We expect the bearish theme to persist tomorrow.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market began the session quietly but gained momentum later, buoyed by remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting that US interest rates may have reached their peak. Additionally, the bullish sentiment was supported by lower-than-anticipated ADP employment data. As the session concluded, Nigeria’s average mid-yield decreased by c. 3 bps, closing at 9.56%. Meanwhile, Egypt implemented a substantial 600 bps interest rate hike to 27.25% in efforts to secure $3 billion in financial assistance from the IMF.
Outlook: We expect sentiment to stay bullish tomorrow.
Equities
The Nigerian equity market advanced further at the end of today’s session, given persistent buyside interests on the TRANSPOWER (+9.90%) and TRANSCORP (+9.96%). Ultimately, the All-Share Index (ASI) appreciated by 0.40% to settle at 99,591.64 points, with the year-to-date return settled at 33.19% and total market capitalization valued at ₦56.31 trillion.
Trading activity was mixed with +4.61% and -38.63% in total volume and value traded, respectively. TRANSCORP led the volume chart with 67.34 million units while TRANSPOWER led the values chart with ₦11.78 billion. The Banking Index gained 0.24%, while the Consumer Goods Index shed 0.83%. Meanwhile, the Industrial and Oil & Gas Indices closed relatively flat.
Outlook: We expect the bullish sentiment to linger tomorrow, albeit less aggressively.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by 0.21% (or ₦3.31) to $/₦1,605.74 from $/₦1,602.43 recorded yesterday.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist.
Commodities
Oil prices surged over $1 per barrel following Powell’s indication of potential interest rate cuts later this year. Brent crude climbed to $83.61 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching $80.07 per barrel at the time of reporting. Concurrently, Gold Price reached $2,154.10 per ounce, ahead of the Fed testimony.
Outlook: We expect oil prices to remain elevated.
