Base-Year Effect Festive Spending to Halt Disinflationary Trend in December; Headline CPI expected at a range of 31.4– 32.4%y/y
In the week ahead, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of December 2025. The expected CPI data will show how Nigeria has dealt with increase in goods and services over the past one-year since rebasing to December 2024 prices.
As such, we conducted a pre-CPI report analysis, our findings suggest that the Headline inflation rate (a measure of the average change in the price level of both food and non-food items) will increase faster by a minimum of 1700bps to a range 31.4– 32.4%y/y from 14.5%y/y in the month of November. We believe the sharp increase, will be largely driven by base-year effect from both the core (i.e non-food items price) and food Inflation…
