FINANCIAL MARKETS TODAY – 15 December 2021

Macroeconomic Update

Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November dropped by 59bps, to settle at 15.40% year-on-year from October figures which were printed at 15.99%, as indicated in the reports released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The declining trend in inflation figures can be allied to the base year effect and food harvest seasonality which has slightly lowered the growth pace in food prices. On the back of these easing factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)  slowed to a 12-month low in November.

However, on a month-on-month basis, the Food Sub-index and Core sub-index rose to settle at 1.07% and 1.08%, respectively compared to 0.91% and 0.98% in October 2021, pushing the narrative for a slight pressure on prices due to the yuletide season.  Likewise, the Urban and Rural Inflation figures rose by 1.12% and 1.04% from 1.02% and 0.95% recorded in October 2021.

We anticipate that the headline inflation figures could change its current trend due to the increased spending observed during the yuletide season.

Money Markets

Interbank system liquidity declined further to open with a balance of -ca ₦65.10billion, higher than the previous day’s opening balance of -ca ₦51.42billion. Nonetheless, with no significant outflows the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) and Overnight (ON) rates trended lower to settle at 13.00% and 13.50% from 13.75% and 14.25% respectively, the previous day.

Treasury Bills

The NTB secondary market traded on a muted note, as market players anticipated the outcome of the NTB auction. There were interests seen on the August-September NTB papers and the CBN special bills. However, the average rate remained stable day-on-day at 4.34%, with minimal activities seen across the curve.

Bonds

The FGN bonds secondary market sustained its quiet stance today, as investors focused on the bonds primary market auction alongside the NTB auction. Nonetheless, maturities at the long end of the curve – 2037s and 2050s witnessed the most traction, though scarcity of offers across the curve ensured trades executed were few and far between.

Eurobonds

The Eurobond space was largely bearish today, with selloffs activities observed across the sovereign curve. Overall, the average yield rose ca 8bps day-on-day at 7.32%.

Equities

The domestic bourse observed a slight recovery, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) gained 0.09% day-on-day, to close at 42,357.36pts, while the market’s year-to-date returns extended to ca 5.18%. Buying interest was seen for bellwethers such as Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (+2.40%),  Zenith Bank Plc (+0.20%), and MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (+0.10%), respectively at today’s trading session.  

The NSE Consumer Goods Index gained ca 0.22%, while the NSE Banking, Industrial Goods and Oil & Gas indices lost ca 0.20%, 0.11% and 0.05% day-on-day, respectively.

International Breweries Plc led the volume chart with ca 51.79 million units while Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc topped the value charts with ca ₦457.23 million worth of trades.

Foreign Exchange

FMDQ’s Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) appreciated to ₦414.25/US$1.00 from ₦414.80/US$1.00, the previous day.

Commodities

Global crude oil prices declined for the third straight day, amid concerns that supply growth will outperform demand next year, as the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed fears of the vaccine efficacy against the Omicron variant. Thus, Brent Crude oil price lost ca 1.07% day-on-day to settle at US$72.91pb, while WTI also dipped ca 1.23% to US$69.86 as at report time. Spot Gold lost ca 0.30% day-on-day to settle at US$1,766.90 per ounce as at report time.

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