FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Opening system liquidity was estimated to be over ₦600 billion long, buoyed by retail FX refunds and FGN bond coupon payment. However, because of the retail FX SMIS that was conducted today by the CBN, the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) increased to 13.25% and 13.80% respectively compared to 10.63% and 11.01% recorded yesterday.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates to trend slightly lower at the start of next week but inch up by mid-week due to the settlement of the FGN bond auction.
The bears dominated the treasury bills market at the early hours of trading, as sell interests were seen across the mid-to-long end of the curve, particularly the May 2023 and March 2024 papers. Although, buyers cherry-picked some papers as the market headed for a close. As a result, average yield declined by 11bps to 5.26%.
Outlook: We expect the outcome out the MPC meeting next week to dictate the direction of market sentiment next week.
The local bonds market was relatively quite today, with few cares for the 2026 paper, as market players anticipate next week Monday’s FGN bond auction where ₦360bn (₦90bn each) will be offered across the 2028, 2032, 2037 and 2049 maturities. Overall, the average yield remained unchanged at 13.71%.
Outlook: We expect the result of the FGN bond auction, as well as the rate decision by the MPC to drive next week’s trading sessions.
After the sustained sell pressure over the week that spilled into the early hours of trading,, we saw some relief rally towards the closing bell in today’s market, as interested buyers looked to take advantage of attractive yield across board. Consequently, the average yield shed 31bps to 13.40%.
Outlook: We expect the next week’s U.S FOMC meeting to be at the spotlight amongst other catalysts.
The Nigerian bourse closed on a flat note today, while year-to-date return closed at c.7.15%. Selling interest in GTCO (-0.1%), and ACCESSCORP (-0.2%) led to the flat note that was recorded in the market today. The NGX Industrial Goods, Banking, and Industrial Index, all appreciated in value by c. 0.18%, and c. 0.02%, respectively, however, the NGX Consumer Goods Index depreciated in value by c. -0.25%.While the NGX Oil and Gas Index closed flat. CAPHOTEL led the volume charts at c. 36.43 million units, while ZENITHBANK led the values chart at c. ₦ 232.64 million.
Outlook: We expect the outcome of the MPC meeting next week to dictate the direction of market sentiment.
FMDQ’s Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) rate depreciated to ₦ 461.83/US$1.00 from ₦ 461.09/US$1.00 recorded at the close of yesterday.
Outlook: We expect the Naira to continue to hover at $/₦ 461 handles at the NAFEX window.
Oil prices rose on Friday after a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia calmed markets amid strong China demand expectations, but they were on track for their biggest weekly drop since December as the global financial and oil markets were rocked by a banking crisis. Brent Crude Oil price decreased by c.1.65% day-on-day to settle at US$73.47pb, while WTI decreased by c.-1.13% day-on-day to settle at US$67.58pb as at print time. Spot Gold appreciated in value by c.1.81% day-on-day to close at US$1,957.80per ounce as of report time.
Outlook: We expect the fall in Oil price to persist.