FIXED INCOME MARKETS
System liquidity opened positive today, with a balance of c.₦43.26 billion, compared to last week Friday’s opening negative balance of c.-₦415.28 billion. Consequently, the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased to 17.38% and 17.88%, respectively, compared to 18.50% and 18.88%, recorded on Friday.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates to remain at similar levels barring any significant inflow.
Today’s trading session in the treasury bills market started off bearish with sell interests hovering around the long end of the curve (7 Mar 2024 and 28 Mar 2024 papers). Afterwards, some buyers came in to cherry-pick, thus, driving the average yield to downwards by 77bps to 7.31%.
Outlook: We expect the mixed sentiment to persist tomorrow.
The local bonds market sustained its bearish trend today, as offers continued to hunt for bids, with rates nudging upward at the close of the session. Thus, the average mid-yield expanded by 9bps to 13.95%.
Outlook: We expect the bearish bias to resurface tomorrow, pending any major bullish catalyst.
The Eurobonds market was dominated by positive jitters about the intended production cut by the OPEC+ members, as optimism around increase in crude oil price drove buyside interests for most oil producing countries, like Nigeria, as well as the spillover effect across the SSA region. Consequently, average yield dipped by 40bps to 11.71%.
Outlook: We expect the bullish bias to extend into tomorrow’s session.
The Nigerian equity market closed on a bearish note, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) declined in value by c.-1.21% day-on-day, to close at 54,193.32, while year-to-date return closed at c.5.74%. Selling interest in GTCO (-0.1%), and ZENITHBANK (-0.05%), drove the negative performance today. The NGX Banking, Consumer and Oil &Gas Indices all depreciated in value by c. -0.26%, c. -0.31% and c. -0.32%, respectively. However, the NGX Industrial Goods Index remained unchanged. FIDELITYBK led both the volume and value charts with c. 79.73million units, and c. ₦ 426.80 million, respectively.
Outlook: We expect the bearish bias to linger tomorrow.
FMDQ’s Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) rate depreciated to ₦463.50/US$1.00 from ₦461.38/US$1.00 recorded yesterday.
Outlook: We expect the Naira to remain steady at $/₦461 – 463 levels at the NAFEX window.
Following OPEC+’s announcement that it would reduce output by 1.16 million barrels per day, oil prices rose by as much as 8% at market opening. Brent oil prices rose by c. 5.83% to $84.55 per barrel in intraday trade, while WTI appreciated by c.5.87% day-on-day to settle at US$80.11pb as at print time. In contrast, Spot Gold depreciated in value by c. -0.28% day-on-day to close at US$1,980.70per ounce as of report time.
Outlook: We expect more hikes in oil prices.