FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Opening System liquidity declined to c. ₦ 297.75 billion long, compared with the opening balance of ₦320.88 billion recorded yesterday. However, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 11.00% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased to 11.38%.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates to trade at similar levels tomorrow.
The NTB market witnessed a lull session, albeit few demands were recorded on 7 Mar 2024, 28 Mar 2024 and 11 Apr 2024 papers earlier in the day at c.9.50% – 9.90%, most of which were same day settlement trades. Overall, the average mid-rate closed c.7bps lower to settle at 6.77%.
Outlook:: We expect a quiet session tomorrow, though slight buyside interest may be observed on short to mid dated papers.
Sell side interest dominated the FGN bonds market, with persistent rise in yields particularly across the far mid to long dated papers. 2050s traded around 15.72%-15.75%, before bids adjusted upwards to 15.85% mark. A similar trend was seen in the 2037 and 2049 papers, with improved bid/offer yields. Thus, the average mid-yield closed c.5bps to settle at c.13.95%.
Outlook: We anticipate this trend to persist tomorrow, barring any major catalyst.
Post FOMC meeting where the much anticipated 25bps hike played out, saw the Eurobonds market trade bullish, especially across Nigeria, Angola and Egypt papers. The market waved off the prospect that Powell might have one more hike up his sleeve, instead adding to bets the US central bank’s next move will be to cut its benchmark interest rate.
In other news, the ECB increased its benchmark interest rate by 25bps as expected to 3.75%, signaling a slowing pace of policy tightening. Also, the Nigerian Senate agreed to convert $49 Billion owed to the Central Bank under the Ways and means scheme to long dated bonds and Ghana expects Inflation to slow down in the coming months.
Outlook: We expect the buyside activity to linger tomorrow.
The Nigerian equity market closed on a positive note today, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) appreciated by c. 0.16% to closed at 52,290.75, while year-to-date return improved to c 2.03%. Buying interest in FIDELITYBK (0.05%) and GTCO (0.95%) drove the upward trend in today’s session. The NGX Banking, Industrial Goods and Oil &Gas Indices appreciated by 0.76%, 0.02%, and 0.78%, respectively. However, the NGX Consumer Goods Index depreciated by 0.29%. TRANSCORP led the volume charts with c. 811.20 million units while ACCESSCORP the value charts with c. ₦ 2.35 billion.
Outlook: We expect the bullish bias to linger tomorrow.
FMDQ’s Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) rate appreciated to ₦462.88/US$1.00 from ₦463.00/US$1.00 recorded last week Friday.
Outlook: We expect the exchange rate to revolve around $/₦462 – 463 levels.
As demand worries among major consumers outweighed indications that the U.S. may pause its interest rate increases, oil prices slightly recovered on Thursday but were unable to recover from the more than 9% decline in the previous three days. Brent oil prices appreciated by c. 0.95% to $73.02per barrel in intraday trade, while WTI appreciated by c 0.64% day-on-day to settle at US$69.04pb as at print time. Meanwhile, Spot Gold appreciated by c. 0.51% day-on-day to close at US$2,047.30 per ounce as of report time.
Outlook: Despite a price recovery, demand worries still exist.