FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Markets
System liquidity stayed positive all through the week, although, liquidity declined by 69.46% from ₦611.98 billion last week to ₦186.90 billion. As a result, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 20bps and 18bps to 15.06% and 15.47%, respectively, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect Interbank rates to ease in the interim, as expected FAAC credits should enhance liquidity in the system.
Treasury Bills
Following the yuletide holiday, the treasury bills kick-started at mid-week with the treasury bills auction, where the DMO sold ₦317.02 billion bills, despite offering ₦67.02 billion. At the end of the auction, the stop rates for the 91-Day paper increased by 75bps to 7.00%, while the stop rates for the 182, and 364-day papers declined by 100bps and 126bps to 10.0000% and 12.2400%, respectively. In the secondary market, activity was bullish, as buyside interests dominated the long-dated papers. Overall, average mid-rate suffered 65bps to 8.33%, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the current sentiment to resurface next week.
FGN Bonds
The local bond market traded relatively bullish this week, as investors cherry-picked most on-the-runs maturities at attractive levels. Overall, average mid-yield declined by c.12bps, to 14.81%, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect players to continue to trade cherry-pick on a cautious note, pending clarity on the rate expectation for 2024.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market exhibited a bullish sentiment this week, in the absence of any negative trigger against the Fed’s dovish forward guideline. In addition to the bullish sentiment observed during the week, AFREXIM Bank supported Nigeria with $2.25 billion to ease the nation’s forex scarcity amid mounting economic challenges, an agreement signed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) in September. Accordingly, market closed on a bullish note, as the average mid-yield across the Nigerian curve shed 18bps to settle at 9.43%, week-on-week.
Outlook: The U.S employment data amongst other economic indicators should partly impact the market next week.
Equities
The Nigerian equity market witnessed a mixed sentiment this week, but settled on a bullish note, due to buying interests on several tickers, including MTNN (+5.60%). Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) expanded by 1.01% to settle at 74,773.77 points, yielding a Year-to-Date (YTD) return of 45.90%.
The Banking, Industrial and Oil & Gas Indices posted gains of 1.08%, 0.01%, and 0.37%, w/w respectively, while the Consumer Goods Index declined by 1.46%, week-on-week. Noteworthy in trading activities, JAIZBANK led in total volume traded with 109.39 million units, while GEREGU led in total value traded with ₦13.28 billion.
Outlook: We expect the mixed sentiment to persist.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) appreciated by ₦21.23 (or 2.40%) to $/₦907.11 compared to $/₦885.88 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
Commodities
Oil prices are set to end 2023 about 10% lower, the first annual decline in two years, after geopolitical concerns, production cuts and global measures to rein in inflation triggered wild fluctuations in prices. As of writing, Brent has depreciated by +1.95% to $77.53 per barrel, and WTI declined by 2.13% to US$71.99 per barrel. However, Gold has advanced by 1.97% to US$2,075.80 per ounce at the time of this report.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
