FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Market
System liquidity slipped into the negative territory as it opened at -₦24.78 billion, compared with c.₦206.85 billion recorded yesterday. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) expanded by 227bps to 18.67% and 217bps to 19.42%, respectively.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates to remain at elevated levels tomorrow.
Treasury Bills
The treasury bills market trended on a mixed-to-bearish trajectory. During the session, bids were concentrated at the long end of the curve, including OMO papers. Nonetheless, offers were more pronounced, thus impacting the average mid-rate to increase by 193bps to 7.78%.
Outlook: We expect the mixed to bearish bias to persist tomorrow.
FGN Bonds
Activity in the FGN local bonds trended mixed, with most interests noticed on the 2050 and 2053 papers. At the closing bell, market settled on a bullish note, as the average mid-yield declined by 12bps to close at 14.17%.
Outlook: We expect players to continue to show interest for high yield papers.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market observed a bearish theme, on account of the mixed signals in the US market and less than expected performance of China’s GDP. The US retails sales in December 2023 was reported at 0.60% m/m, higher than 0.4% estimate and 0.30% in November. Amongst the African peers, Ghana’s curve was an outlier, with rising hopes for Eurobonds investors after the country secured a debt moratorium until 2026 from official creditors. Overall, the average mid-yield in the Nigerian curve increased by 28bps to settle at 10.06%.
Outlook: We expect the bearish sentiment to linger, albeit, at a slow pace.
Equities
Despite the profit taking activity witnessed in the banking index, the Nigerian bourse maintained a bullish bias in today’s trading, with an outstanding 2.38% appreciation in ASI, crossing 90,000 points to settle at 90, 063.25 points. WEMA (+10.00%), BUACEMENT (+9.99%), TRANSCORP (+9.97%) amongst other top tickers topped the frontline advancers. Thus, the YTD return settled higher at +20.45% with a total market capitalization of ₦49.28 trillion. Activity was positive with 19.25% increase in total volume and a 2.08% increase in total value traded.
STERLING topped the volume chart with 106.14 million units, while NB led in value at ₦2.02 billion. The Industrial, Consumer and Oil & Gas Indices appreciated by 8.76%, 1.92% and 0.45%, respectively, while the banking index lost 3.26%.
Outlook: We expect a slight bearish sentiment tomorrow.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by 5.99% (or ₦52.66) to $/₦931.23 from $/₦878.57 recorded yesterday.
Outlook: The rate to hover around 800-1000 levels.
Commodities
China’s lower-than-expected GDP growth rate sprinkled bearish sentiment in the oil market, as it raised concerns about future demand, while U.S. dollar strength dented investor’s risk appetite. Brent crude was reported at $77.05 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $71.43 per barrel, as at printing time. Gold prices increased to $2,011.60 per ounce from the previous day, as of printing time.
Outlook: We expect oil prices to hover around $70 pb levels in the interim.
