FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Markets
This week, system liquidity declined, primarily attributed to OMO bills auction debit. Liquidity dropped from c.₦186.43 billion last Friday to -₦527.96 billion today. As a result, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 552bps and 545bps to 22.10% and 23.25% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect interbank rates to stay elevated next week.
Treasury Bills
The CBN auctioned ₦300 billion worth of OMO bills early in the week at rates of 10.00%, 13.50%, and 17.50% for the 92-Day, 183-Day, and 365-Day bills. This prompted a brief repricing in the treasury bills market, with offers rising amid buyside interest. Despite a mixed theme, the market gradually shifted to a bullish stance towards the end of the week, driven by increased bidding momentum. However, the week concluded on a bearish note, as the average mid-rate rose by 109bps to 6.94% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the market to be skewed towards the NTB auction next week, as the DMO would be offering ₦231.87 billion.
FGN Bonds
The week commenced with an uptrend in yields post the OMO bills auction, particularly across the mid and long end of the curve. Bearish sentiment persisted until mid-week, after which investors’ appetite increased due to the attractive offers available. The 2028s, 2033s, 2038s, 2050s and 2053s were the most traded papers. However, the market concluded on a bearish note, as the average mid-yield rose by 16bps to 14.21% week-on-week.
Outlook: The market is poised for a mixed trend, as the CBN’s MPC meeting is scheduled to hold February 26th and 27th., being the first MPC since July 2023 and the first under the new Governor of CBN, Olayemi Cardoso.
Eurobonds
This week, the Eurobonds market faced mixed sentiments amid uncertainty over precise monetary policy direction and varied economic indicators in the United States. Despite hopes for a rate cut in March diminishing, the market leaned towards a bearish theme. The week concluded with the average mid-yield across the Nigerian curve rising by 15bps to settle at 9.87% week-on-week.
In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to immediately disburse $684.7 million to Kenya, bolstering the country’s external reserves ahead of a crucial Eurobonds repayment in June. Additionally, Ghana’s bond market gained mid-week as optimism grew among Eurobonds investors following the country’s successful negotiation of a debt moratorium until 2026 with official creditors.
Outlook: We expect the market to continue to adjust to the US economic indicators like the US PMI, Q4 GDP data, and PCE Index amongst others.
Equities
The Nigerian equity market experienced a significant surge this week, with the ASI surpassing the 90,000-points threshold. Notably, the Industrial Index spearheaded the bullish rally, notably driven by DANGCEM (+53.94%) and BUACEMENT (+45.80%). Consequently, the ASI concluded the week at 94,538.12 points, yielding a Year-to-Date (YTD) return of 26.43% and pushing the market capitalization to ₦51.74 trillion.
All indices closed on a bullish note, except the Banking Index, which recorded a 0.12% loss week-on-week. The Oil & Gas, Industrial, and Consumer Goods Indices appreciated by 8.82%, 46.88%, and 8.18%, respectively. TRANSCORP led both the volume and value charts this week, recording 443.22 million units and ₦7.78 billion.
Outlook: We expect the current activity to persist.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by ₦11.91 (or 1.34%) to $/₦902.45 compared to $/₦890.54 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
Commodities
The oil market is poised for a weekly gain, influenced by evaluations of Middle East tensions, U.S. oil output disruptions due to cold weather, and concerns about the global and Chinese economy. As of the latest data, Brent rose by +1.21% week-on-week to $79.24 per barrel, while WTI fell by 2.22% to US$74.29 per barrel. Meanwhile, Gold depreciated by 1.10% week-on-week, settling at US$2,051.60 per ounce at the time of this report.
Outlook: We expect oil price to hover around $70-80pb next week.
