FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Market
System liquidity remained negative, opening at -₦172.43 billion, compared with Friday’s opening balance of -₦307.65 billion. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate increased by 190bps to 22.10%, and the Overnight Rate expanded by 170bps to 22.90%.
Outlook: We expect rates to stay elevated, pending any major inflows.
Treasury Bills
Activity in the treasury bills market was bearish, as selling interest dominated amid the recent hawkish posture by the CBN. In addition, ahead of this week’s NTB auction, the DMO revised the NTB offer size from c.₦417.06 billion to ₦1 trillion, fuelling the notion that the trajectory for yields is on the uptrend. However, by close of trading, few bids resurfaced to cherry-pick the available offers. Overall, the average mid-yield soared by 186bps to settle at 13.38%.
Outlook: We expect market to trade cautiously tomorrow, ahead of Wednesday’s NTB auction.
FGN Bonds
The FGN local bonds market also sustained significant selling interest, particularly across the 2029, 2037, 2038 and 2053 papers, as investors reacted to the revised NTB auction calendar and tight market liquidity. Towards close of trading, some demand was observed by real money players, as they cherry-picked the attractive offers. Generally, the average mid-yield increased by 76bps to 16.44%.
Outlook: We expect the bearish bias to persist.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market endured a bearish theme today, following Jerome Powell’s affirmation on three rate cuts this year, in an interview with CBS over the weekend. Thus, the market interpreted the tone with selling interests across major papers in the SSA region, although the Egypt curve continued to trade bullish, driven by positive sentiments regarding their recent deal with IMF. Overall, the Nigeria’s average mid-yield increased by 16bps to settle at 9.94%.
Outlook: We expect the speaking engagement of members of the Federal Reserve to continue to impact the market, subject to country-specific jitters.
Equities
The Nigerian bourse settled on a bearish note today, with a slight bullish bias on selected papers. Selling interest in NB (-2.56) and FBNH (-0.76%) drove the market to close bearish, as ASI lost 0.73% to settle at 103, 659.81 points while the year-to-date return declined to 38.63% and total market capitalization printed at ₦56.72 trillion.
Trading activity was negative, with a 10.81% decline in total volume and a 17.67% decline in total value. FBNH led both the volume and value charts with 332.30 million units and ₦8.95 billion. The Banking, and Consumer Indices declined by 2.30% and 0.03%, respectively, while the Industrial and Oil & Gas Indices closed relatively flat.
Outlook: We expect a similar momentum tomorrow.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) appreciated by 1.09% (or ₦15.67) to $/₦1,419.86 from $/₦1,435.53 recorded last Friday.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist.
Commodities
Oil prices fell today as the Federal Reserve moves carefully on interest rate cuts, and the U.S. pushes for an extended pause in the Israel-Hamas War.Brent crude was reported at $76.97 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $71.75 per barrel, as at printing time. Gold increased to $2,034.80 per ounce as of printing time.
Outlook: We expect the bearish sentiment to persist in the interim.
