FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Market
Opening system liquidity increased by 144.73% to ₦126.66 billion long today, buoyed by bilateral swap maturities. However, the Open Repo Rate increased by 308bps to 19.08%, and the Overnight Rate soared by 283bps to 19.83%.
Outlook: We expect rates to nudge higher tomorrow, as the NTB auction funding should impact liquidity.
Treasury Bills
In today’s session, the bulk of activity was concentrated at the primary market, due to the massive increase in offer size from c.₦417.06 billion to ₦1 trillion. At the backdrop of the calm session was bearish sentiment, as quotes repriced higher, suggesting market anticipation for a higher stop rate, considering the intended allotment. Consequently, the average mid-yield increased by 229bps to settle at 15.34%.
Outlook: Market is expected to reprice higher in yields tomorrow, given the drastic uptick in stop rates at the end of today’s NTB auction.
FGN Bonds
In light of jitters around the NTB auction today, the FGN local bonds market traded cautiously, although, with minimal cherry-picking activity on selected papers, including the 2038, 2049 and 2053 maturities. At the closing bell, market settled slightly bullish, as the average mid-yield decreased by c.27bps to close at 16.27%.
Outlook: We expect sentiment in the treasury bills market to partly impact the bonds market tomorrow, particularly the short-dated papers.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market posted a bullish sentiment across major African papers, due to positive country-specific catalysts, amidst lingering U.S dovish outlook in the medium to long term. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s quick fix to significantly clear foreign-currency backlog as well as recent policy to drastically ease the spontaneous CRR debits, supported foreign investors’ optimism. Egypt’s persistent and gradual increase in its external reserves sends positive signals to investors. Kenya’s open tender to repurchase the June 2024 paper sparked buying interests across the yield curve. Overall, the Nigeria’s average mid-yield fell by 6bps to settle at 9.73%.
Outlook: We expect the bullish sentiment to linger tomorrow at similar pace.
Equities
The Nigerian bourse witnessed a much lesser activity in today’s session, as market players tilted interests to the fixed income market, given the expectation for a repricing at profitable levels. Meanwhile, the All-Share Index (ASI) ranged in today’s session, after hitting 0.40% at mid-day, market eased to close relatively flat at 102,106.31 points from 102,108.05 points yesterday, while the year-to-date return settled at 36.55% from 36.56% yesterday. The total market capitalization remained unchanged at c. ₦55.87 trillion.
Accordingly, trading activity was negative, with a 30.81% decline in total volume and a 15.68% decline in total value. TRANSCORP led the volume chart with 39.90 million units while GTCO led the value charts with ₦1.02 billion. The Banking, and Industrial Indices declined by 1.45% and 0.10%, respectively, while the Consumer Index gained 1.32% and the Oil & Gas Index flattened.
Outlook: We expect a similar momentum tomorrow.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) appreciated by 1.05% (or ₦15.11) to $/₦1,418.78 from $/₦1,433.78 recorded yesterday.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist.
Commodities
Crude oil futures increased for a third day as U.S. production this year is expected to grow less than expected, easing worries that the market is oversupplied. Brent crude was reported at $79.01 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $73.71 per barrel, as at printing time. Gold increased to $2,055.30 per ounce as of printing time.
Outlook: We expect geopolitical tensions to continue to weigh on crude oil prices.
