FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Market
The opening system liquidity experienced a significant decline, entering a negative zone at -₦641.23 billion, in contrast to the ₦198.79 billion reported yesterday. Consequently, both the Open Repo Rate and Overnight Rate surged, rising by c.149 bps and c.148 bps to 24.50% and 25.42%, respectively.
Outlook: We expect rates to stay elevated in the interim.
Treasury Bills
In today’s session, the treasury bills market remained subdued, with activity notably quiet as market participants focused on the NTB auction. Consequently, the average mid-rate remained unchanged at 13.97%.
Outlook: We expect a bearish bias in tomorrow’s session, given the high stop rate amidst dampened system liquidity.
FGN Bonds
The FGN local bond market experienced limited activity, characterized by a sparse number of trades involving selected bonds (Feb 2034s, 2038s and 2053s). Despite this, the average mid-yield showed no change, closing at 16.94%.
Outlook: We expect a bearish bias in tomorrow’s session.
Eurobonds
African papers opened quiet in today’ session. The Egypt and South African papers switched to a bullish bias, while the SSA curves witnessed a bearish spiral at the close of today’s session. Consequently, Nigeria’s average mid-yield increased by 10bps to close at 9.85%.
Outlook: We expect market to trade cautiously ahead of the release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting.
Equities
Today, the Nigerian equity market experienced a modest gain, propelled by a rebound in FBNH (+9.96%). Despite ongoing selling interests across various stocks, the pace of decline was less aggressive, with 43 decliners and 11 advancers observed. As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 0.30% to settle at 101,362.38 points, with the year-to-date return reaching approximately 35.56% and total market capitalization valued at ₦55.46 trillion.
Trading activity showed a mixed pattern, with a notable 18.19% increase in total volume traded but a slight 1.15% decline in total value traded. FBNH led both the volume and value charts, recording 39.38 million units traded valued at ₦1.10 billion. Across sectors, the Banking, Industrial, and Oil & Gas Indices experienced an uptick of 0.31%, 1.60%, and 0.07% respectively, while the Consumer Goods Index fell by 0.24%.
Outlook: We expect a similar momentum tomorrow.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) appreciated by 0.56% (or ₦8.66) to $/₦1,542.58 from $/₦1,551.24 recorded yesterday.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist.
Commodities
Crude oil futures fell slightly today as the market waits for further indication of when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. Brent crude reached $82.52 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $77.30 per barrel at the time of reporting. The price of gold increased to $2,039.90 per ounce at the same time.
Outlook: We expect the minutes of US FOMC meeting to partly impact market tomorrow.
