FIXED INCOME MARKETS
MONEY MARKETS
Today, the opening system liquidity experienced a decline, dropping to -₦48.40 billion compared to the ₦347.05 billion reported last Friday. As a result, both the Open Repo Rate and the Overnight Rates declined by 386 bps and 331 bps, to 25.97% and 26.31%, respectively.
Outlook: We expect rates to notch higher by Thursday, following NTB auction Settlement.
Treasury Bills
Leading up to Thursday’s auction, the treasury bills market exhibited a mixed to bullish performance along the curve. Trading activity was observed across various instruments, with predominant buying interest concentrated on the short to mid-term maturities, while there were mild selling interests observed on the longer end. Overall, the average mid-rate decreased by c.53 bps, reaching a settlement of 16.92%.
Outlook: We expect attention of players to be skewed towards the NTB auction rescheduled for Thursday, April 11th, where the DMO would be offering a total ₦149.64 billion.
FGN Bonds
The bonds market experienced a subdued trading session, characterized by limited activity and only a few transactions completed on specific instruments. The focus was primarily on the 2029, February 2034, 2049, 2050, and 2053 bonds. Overall, the market concluded the session with minimal change, as the average mid-yield remained steady at 18.66%.
Outlook: We expect momentum to remain subdued by Thursday, pending any significant driver.
Eurobonds
Throughout today’s trading session, African Eurobond markets predominantly displayed a bearish trend. This was attributed to market’s consensus anticipating higher US inflation data, with expectations for the US headline and Core Consumer Price Indices (CPI) to rise to 3.50% year-on-year (y/y) and 3.70% y/y, respectively, from their February levels. Towards the end of the session, some buying interest emerged, particularly focusing on selected instruments, particularly within the mid-range of the Eurobond yield curve. Nevertheless, despite this late interest, the average mid-yield for the Nigerian curve witnessed an increase of 11 basis points, reaching 9.45%.
Outlook: We expect the US CPI data and potentially new developments from the Federal Reserve to impact on market over the week
Equities
The Nigerian equity market exhibited a bearish bias today, driven by persistent selling interests on the banking tickers. For context, the All-Share Index (ASI) lost 0.38% to settle at 103,046.99 points, while year-to-date returns and market capitalization settled at 37.81% and ₦58.28 trillion, respectively.
Trading activity was negative, as total volume and value traded decreased by 82.25% and 62.28%, respectively. Also, ABBEYBDS led the volume chart with 137.21 million units while GTCO led the values chart with ₦1.55 billion. The Banking and Consumer Goods Indices declined by 2.67% and 0.27%, respectively, while the Oil & Gas and Industrial Indices stayed flat.
Outlook: We expect the similar trend by Thursday.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) appreciated by 1.63% (or ₦20.44) to $/₦1,230.61 from $/₦1,225.07 recorded last Friday, following a circular issued by the CBN informing the market about the sale of $10,000 to each BDCs at ₦1,101.00/$.
Outlook: We expect FX rate to stabilize in the interim.
Commodities
Today, oil prices experienced a decline following Israel’s reduction in troop presence in Gaza. Brent crude saw a depreciation of 1.36% to $89.93 per barrel, while WTI dropped by 1.10% to $85.95 per barrel. Conversely, gold prices recorded a 0.14% increase, reaching $2,348.60, partly driven by purchases from Asian central banks.
Outlook: We expect oil prices to remain elevated.
