FIXED INCOME MARKETS
MONEY MARKETS
This week, system liquidity experienced a significant decrease, mainly due to the debits from the FGN Bond auction, with minimal coupon inflows from the FGN 2037s bond towards the end of the week. Consequently, the opening system liquidity by the end of the week was reported at -₦903.91 billion, down from ₦67.38 billion the previous week. Despite this, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) declined by 28 bps to 29.39%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 18 bps, reaching 30.25% compared to the previous week.
Outlook: We expect interbank rates to hover at elevated levels next week, pending the influx of FAAC credits.
Treasury Bills
The treasury bills market ended the week on a bearish note following a period of mixed trading. Initially, the market saw limited activity in the first half of the week, characterized by a bearish sentiment due to rising yields caused by liquidity constraints. Consequently, selling pressure affected the short and mid sections of the yield curve. However, buying interest improved in the latter half of the week, particularly favouring short and long-dated papers. As a result, the average mid-rate rose by c.247 bps W-o-W, reaching 19.55% at the close of the week.
Outlook: We expect next week’s activity to be centred around the NTB auction, where the DMO would be offering ₦142.57 billion across the three tenors.
FGN Bonds
At the start of the week, the DMO offered ₦450.00 billion worth of bonds spanning Apr 2029 (NEW), Feb 2031, and Feb 2034 maturities . However, demand surged, resulting in sales of c.₦626.81 billion across these three tenors, with total subscriptions exceeding ₦920.09 billion. Following this activity, the market adopted a subdued tone due to limited liquidity in the system. Towards the end of the week, positive sentiment emerged because of FGN coupon inflows, sparking buying interest in various bond maturities including the 2029, 2031, 2034, and 2053 papers. Consequently, the market closed on a bullish note, with the average mid-yield decreasing by 5 bps to 18.70%.
Outlook: We anticipate a mixed trend next week.
Eurobonds
The Eurobond market maintained sideways trajectory throughout the week before ending on a bearish note. This bearish shift was prompted by the release of US retail sales data for March, which exceeded expectations, registering a growth of 0.70% compared to the anticipated 0.30%. The bearish sentiment persisted for the duration of the week, but the market managed to recover some ground towards the end, experiencing bullish sentiment across the curve. Nonetheless, the average mid-yield on Nigerian Eurobonds rose by 24 bps, closing at 9.83%.
Outlook: Next week, the direction of the market will likely be influenced by key economic indicators such as the U.S. S&P flash services and manufacturing PMI, GDP figures, and the Core PCE Index. Additionally, market participants will closely monitor geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Equities
The Nigerian Equity market closed bearish this week, with persistent selloffs in the banking tickers. Consequently, the All-Share Index declined by 2.71% week-on-week to settle at 99,539.75 points, with year-to-date return and market capitalization standing at 33.12% and ₦56.30 trillion, respectively.
The Banking, Industrial and Consumer Goods Indices shed 11.46%. 2.71% and 0.96% week-on-week, while the Oil & Gas Index flattened. ACCESSCORP led total volume charts with 210.85 million units, while ZENITHBANK topped the value chart with ₦5.42 billion in value.
Outlook: The bearish trend is expected to ease next week.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by ₦27.61 (or 2.42%) to $/₦1,169.99 compared to $/₦1,142.38 recorded at the close of last week.
Outlook: We expect volatility to remain subdued next week.
Commodities
Oil prices are poised to register a weekly decline, with traders showing little concern that Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran will escalate into a broader conflict affecting crude supplies. Brent crude dropped by 3.63% week-on-week to $87.17 per barrel, while WTI experienced a 3.18% decrease to $82.94 per barrel during the same period. Meanwhile, the price of gold increased by 1.42% week-on-week, reaching $2,407.80 per ounce.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist.
