FIXED INCOME MARKETS
MONEY MARKETS
System liquidity consistently increased this week to open at a positive balance of ₦19.61 billion today, from -₦606.76 billion reported last week Friday. Overall, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) declined by 400bps to 26.25%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased by 417 bps to 27.08% when compared to the previous week.
Outlook: We expect interbank rates to hover at similar levels next week.
Treasury Bills
The treasury bills market settled bearish this week, as average mid-rate increased by 9bps w/w to close the week at 19.04%. To expatiate, momentum was broadly calm, albeit, with most trades consummated occasionally around the long-dated papers.
Outlook: We expect attention to be shifted towards the NTB auction next week, as the DMO is set to auction ₦179.36 billion.
FGN Bonds
This week, the local FGN bonds market experienced a surge in bullish activity. As a result, the average mid-yield saw a decline of 41bps w/w and closed the week at 18.54%. While the momentum was not aggressive overall, most activities were focused on the 2026, Mar 2027, Feb 2034, and Jul 2034 maturities. At the end of the week, the DMO revised the Q2’2024 FGN Bond Issuance calendar, replacing the Feb 2034 paper with a new May 2033 (9-year) paper.
Outlook: We expect the mixed trend to persist next week.
Equities
The Nigerian Equity market was stirred up this week, with several cherry-picking activities across most bellwether tickers, especially the banking stocks. Despite starting the week on a bearish footing, buyers dominated in the second half of the week. Overall, the All-Share Index appreciated by 1.46%, w/w to close at 99,587.25 points. The year-to-date return and market capitalization stood at 33.18% and ₦56.32 trillion, respectively.
The Consumer Goods, Industrial and Oil & Gas indices lost 0.26%, 0.36% and 0.68%, respectively, while the Banking and Oil & Gas Indices gained 8.67%, week-on-week. ABBEYBDS led the total volume charts with 362.84 million units, while GTCO topped the value chart with N8.73 billion in value.
Outlook: We expect a momentum to heighten further next week.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by ₦61.17 (or 4.57%) to $/₦1,400.40 compared to $/₦1,339.23 recorded at the close of last week.
Outlook: We expect volatility to persist next week.
Eurobonds
The Eurobond market had mixed results. However, the Nigerian papers experienced a bullish trend, with mid-yield decreasing by 17bps w/w to settle at 9.66%. Despite the hawkish stance of the FOMC during the week, which saw the retention of the benchmark interest rate at 5.50%, the market remained bullish. In his subsequent speech, Fed Chair Powell hinted that U.S. rates will remain high for a long time, even though he acknowledged a loss of momentum in the inflation fight. He, however, ruled out additional increases.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 175,000 in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US at the end of the week. This figure followed a revised March increase of 315,000, initially reported as 303,000, but fell short of the market expectation of 238,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate for April was 3.9%, slightly higher than the expected 3.8%.
Outlook: We expect the mixed sentiment to persist next week.
Commodities
Oil prices were set to experience a weekly loss, as concerns about the demand for oil and high interest rates drove selling interest. Brent crude fell by 6.98% to $83.25 per barrel, while WTI has declined by 6.42% to $78.47 per barrel during the same period. Additionally, the price of gold has also dropped by 1.85% to $2,303.70 per ounce in the same week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist.
