Money Market
System liquidity significantly declined into negative territory today, starting the week on a lower note due to outflows from net CRR debit activities and swap rollovers last Friday. As a result, interbank rates saw a notable increase. The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) surged by 4.79%, closing at 32.08%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) rose by 4.72%, settling at 32.58%.
Outlook: We anticipate that interbank rates will remain elevated, as the upcoming OMO maturity of c.₦270 billion is unlikely to significantly impact market liquidity.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills market began the week with notable activity, especially at the long end of the curve, with strong demand for the 4th December 2025 and 8th January 2026 bills. However, the scarcity of offers limited the number of trades. The short end of the curve also saw some action, particularly with the February and March bills. Overall, the average mid-rate for benchmark NTB papers settled at 22.92%.
Outlook: We anticipate that the same sentiment will continue tomorrow.
FGN Bonds
The local bonds market traded calmly, though with a bearish undertone. Offers were observed mainly in mid-dated papers, particularly the February 2031 and May 2033 bonds, offered at 22.10% and 21.20%, respectively. Overall, trading volume was low, with only a few transactions recorded. The average mid-yield increased by 5 bps, settling at 19.75%.
Outlook: We expect a mixed theme in tomorrow’s session.
Eurobonds
The Eurobond market faced a pronounced bearish trend, with prices in the SSA and North African regions plummeting sharply. This decline followed last Friday’s strong jobs report, which altered market expectations by reducing hopes for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the average mid-yield for Nigerian bonds rose by 16 bps, settling at 9.59%.
Outlook: The market’s attention will now turn to the upcoming US PPI data, set to be released tomorrow, for additional economic insights.
Nigerian Equities
The Nigerian stock market started the week on a bearish note, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) falling by 0.08% to close at 105,367.25 points. Market capitalization also decreased to ₦64.25 trillion. This decline was primarily due to selloffs in TRANSCORP and FBNH. Among the five main indices, two posted slight gains, with the Oil & Gas index leading with a 0.27% increase. However, the Banking, Insurance, and Consumer Goods indices experienced declines.
Outlook: We expect a mixed theme in tomorrow’s session.
Foreign Exchange
The Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) remained stable today, with transactions occurring within the $/₦1,543.00 to $/₦1,550.00 range. By the end of the day, the NFEM closed at $/₦1,546.8530, marking a depreciation of 31 basis points from the previous trading day.
Outlook: We anticipate that the Naira will continue to trade within a similar range.
Commodities
Oil prices continued to rise for the third consecutive session, with Brent crude surpassing $80 per barrel, reaching its highest level in over four months. This increase was fueled by expanded U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and the anticipated impact on exports to major buyers like India and China. Brent crude was quoted at $81.03 per barrel, while WTI hovered around $78.00. Conversely, gold prices dipped as the U.S. dollar soared to a two-year high following a strong jobs report last week, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will be cautious about cutting interest rates this year. Gold traded at c.$2,664.49 per ounce.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to continue to persist.
