Money Market
Interbank liquidity decreased today due to the settlement of the FGN bond auction winnings, which totaled c.₦606 billion. As a result, interbank rates rose. Specifically, the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) increased by 44 bps to 26.94%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) rose by 50 bps to 27.50%.
Outlook: Interbank rates are expected to remain around similar levels unless there is a significant catalyst.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury bills market experienced sustained interest in April 2025 and May 2025 bills, while only modest interest was observed in the December 2025 and January 2026 securities. In general, few transactions were completed, leading to a decline in the average mid-rate for benchmark NTBs by 15 bps, settling at 22.28%.
Outlook: We expect mixed sentiments in tomorrow’s session.
FGN Bonds
The bond market exhibited a bearish sentiment as investors aimed to realize gains prior to today’s settlement. As the day advanced, offers diminished, resulting in a subdued conclusion to trading activities. The most frequently traded securities included the February 2031s, February 2034s, and newly issued January 2035s. Consequently, the average mid-yield rose by 11 bps to reach 20.31%.
Outlook: We anticipate that the bearish trend will persist in tomorrow’s session due to lackluster demand.
Eurobonds
The Eurobond market exhibited mixed sentiments characterized by caution as traders concentrated on the Federal Reserve’s imminent interest rate decision. Investors are on high alert for indications regarding a potential rate cut, with market sentiment varying in response to evolving economic data and expectations surrounding monetary policy. Notably, the average mid-yield for Nigerian bonds experienced a decrease of 3 bps, to close at 9.34%.
Outlook: With the Fed’s agreeing unanimously to hold the target federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, we expect some mixed trading in tomorrow’s session.
Nigerian Equities
The Nigerian stock market experienced a rebound today, with the NGX All-Share Index rising by 57 bps to conclude at 104,549.74 points. The market capitalization reached ₦64.52 trillion. This favorable performance was primarily driven by strong buying interest in ARADEL following its impressive unaudited earnings report for the fiscal year 2024, as well as bargain hunting in STANBIC. In terms of sector performance, among the five major indices, the Oil & Gas index showed the most significant increase, rising by 3.34%, while the Insurance index was the only sector to post a decline, falling by 1.65%.
Outlook: We expect the market to experience mixed sentiments in tomorrow’s session.
Foreign Exchange
The Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) saw improved liquidity, with substantial trades conducted. Most transactions were valued between $/₦1,495 and $/₦1,532.00.
Outlook: We expect that the Naira will continue to trade within a similar range.
Commodities
Oil prices experienced a slight decline due to an increase in U.S. crude inventories and diminishing concerns regarding supply disruptions from Libya. Additionally, attention is drawn to U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. As of the latest figures, Brent crude was valued at c.$ 77.05 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was reported at around $73.36. In the precious metals market, gold prices remained stable as investors closely monitored the upcoming decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, as well as President Donald Trump’s trade policies following his recent tariff announcements, with gold trading at roughly $2,758.49 per ounce.
Outlook: Oil markets are anticipated to stay unstable, and it will take time to gain a clear understanding of how U.S. policies on tariffs and sanctions will impact them.
