Money Market
Interbank liquidity improved substantially at today’s opening, boosted by inflows from Remita and other state-related credits. This liquidity injection prompted a modest easing in interbank rates: the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) fell 9 bps to 26.58%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) dropped 17 bps to 27.04%.
Outlook: Current liquidity levels are expected to be maintained tomorrow, which should keep rates stable.
Treasury Bills
Bullish sentiment dominated the Treasury bills market, with concentrated activity at the long end of the curve—particularly the December, February, and March NTB papers. This demand pressure drove the benchmark NTB average mid-rate down by 44 bps to settle at 19.54%.
Outlook: The prevailing market mood shows strong indications of continuing into the next session.
FGN Bonds
The bond market maintained its quiet tone as participants persisted with their cautious approach. Limited activity emerged primarily around the mid-dated papers, particularly the February 2031 and May 2033 maturities. The session concluded with the average bond mid-yield settling at 18.80%.
Outlook: With inflation rising to 24.23% in Mar’25 (from 23.18% in Feb’25) and no positive triggers emerging, investor reticence should prolong mixed trading conditions.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market maintained its bullish trajectory today, though at a more moderate pace. While buying interest emerged for Nigerian and select Angolan papers, Egyptian bonds experienced slightly bearish pressure. The session closed with Nigerian Eurobond yields compressing by 18 bps to an average mid-yield of 10.67%.
Outlook: We expect the markets to keep swinging between gains and losses as no decisive bullish factors have emerged to establish sustained directional momentum.
Nigerian Equities
The Nigerian equities market closed slightly positive as the All-Share Index (ASI) edged up by 3bps, bringing YTD performance to +1.59%. Despite the uptick, market breadth leaned negative, with 24 gainers versus 29 losers. ABBEYBDS (+9.94%) led the gainers, while NNFM (-9.97%) topped the losers’ chart. Activity was driven by banking stocks, with FIDELITYBK leading in volume (47.43m shares), and MTNN topping the value chart at N2.74bn. The NGX Banking Index dipped 11bps, dragged by GTCO (-1.47%) and ZENITHBANK (-0.4%), despite gains in ACCESSCORP (+3.13%) and UBA (+0.8%). The Consumer Goods Index gained 72bps, lifted by UNILEVER (+9.65%) and INTBREW (+4.36%), while Oil & Gas and Industrial indices closed flat. Value traded rose 3.35% to $6.76m, with MTNN accounting for a quarter of the total. Notable crosses included 8.5m MTNN at N243.00, 11m FIDELITYBK at N18.20, and 7m FCMB at N8.90. Sentiments across Tier-1 banks were mixed to mildly bearish.
Outlook: Trading sentiment is expected to remain mixed in tomorrow’s session.
Foreign Exchange
The Naira sustained its upward momentum and remained stable relative to the previous day’s close, supported by improved dollar supply from both local corporates and the central bank. During the session, the USD/NGN pair traded between $/₦1,590.00 and $/₦1,605. Ultimately, the Naira appreciated by 34 bps to close at $/₦1,598.9548.
Outlook: We expect continued CBN intervention to stabilize markets.
Commodities
Oil prices slipped on Monday despite encouraging news, such as U.S. tariff exemptions for electronics and a recovery in China’s crude imports for March. However, worries about the prolonged U.S.-China trade conflict and its potential to dampen global economic growth and energy demand overshadowed these positives. Brent crude fell 42 cents, or 0.65%, to $64.34 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 53 cents, or 0.9%, to $60.97. Gold, after touching a record high, retreated as investor risk appetite improved due to tariff relief. Spot gold dropped 1.1% to $3,200.11, and U.S. gold futures slid 0.9% to $3,216.20. On Tuesday, gold rebounded 0.6% to $3,230.18, supported by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar amid continued tariff uncertainty.
Outlook: An intensified trade war could trigger downside scenario – featuring a severe U.S. recession and China’s hard landing – potentially driving Brent crude to $40-60/bbl in coming months.
