January Inflation Rate to Rise to over 18% Amid Base Year Effect
In the week ahead, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of January 2026. The expected CPI data will show how Nigeria has dealt with increase in goods and services over the past one-year. It is worth noting that in December 2025, the NBS adjusted the rebase methodology to 12-month moving average.
As such, we conducted a pre-CPI report analysis, our findings suggest that the Headline inflation rate (a measure of the average change in the price level of both food and non-food items) will increase faster by a minimum of 350bps to a range 18.5– 19.5%y/y from 15.15%y/y in the month of December 2025. We believe the sharp increase, will be largely driven by base-year effect from both the core (i.e non-food items price) and food Inflation…
