FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Markets
System liquidity was majorly positive this week, improving from last week’s negative position of ₦186.43 billion short to ₦404.09 billion long, bolstered by FAAC credits. As a result, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) shed 800bps and 826bps to 15.75% and 16.23%, respectively, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect interbank rates to hover at similar levels next week.
Treasury Bills
The treasury bills market witnessed significant buying interest this week across the curve, albeit most of the activity skewed to the long end of the curve, particularly Aug and Nov 2024 papers. Despite the midweek liquidity crunch, the week concluded with more buyside interest, resulting in a c.44bps contraction in the average mid-rate to 9.25% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect market activity to be skewed towards the NTB auction next week.
FGN Bonds
Activity in the bonds market was bullish overall, owing to heightened demand for selected papers, especially the 2025, 2026, 2038 and 2053 papers. The latter saw significant buying to end the week due to short covering amid speculation of the retirement of the 2053 paper ahead of December’s FGN bond auction. Consequently, the average mid-yield declined by c.11bps to close at 15.78% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the mixed activity to resurface next week.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market had a positive week, with a minor setback caused by mild hawkish comments from certain Fed speakers. Notably, their statements highlighted the uncertainty regarding the completion of the Fed’s rate hikes, leaving room for further increases if inflationary pressures endure. Also, President Biden and US Treasury Secretary Yellen acknowledged the persistence of high prices, emphasizing ongoing efforts to address inflation and economic challenges.
Nonetheless, the week ended on a bullish note, despite a mixed economic picture revealed by key US data, including modest figures for Consumer Spending MoM and Core PCE Price Index YoY slightly below expectations. Overall, the average mid-yield across the Nigerian curve declined by 28bps to settle at 10.44%, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the major US economic data to impact market sentiment next week.
Equities
The bargain hunting on banking names and bellwether stocks including FBNH (+10.75%), SEPLAT (+10.00%), and NESTLE (+9.52%) drove the market to close on a bullish note, with the All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 0.27% week-on-week, reaching 71,419.87 points, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) return settling at 39.35%.
Notably, the NGX Banking and Oil & Gas Indices recorded positive gains of 1.92% and 5.97%, respectively, while the Industrial and Consumer Goods Indices declined by 1.23% and 0.47%, week-on-week. In terms of trading volume, UNIVINSURE led with 289.32 million units, while GTCO topped the value charts with ₦5.63 billion.
Outlook: We expect the bullish sentiment to resurface next week, although, on a cautious note.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by ₦132.30 (or 16.64%) to $/₦927.19 compared to $/₦794.89 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
Commodities
Crude oil prices were mixed this week, as players anticipated OPEC+ resolution on oil cut. Brent fell by 1.10% to $74.71 per barrel, while WTI appreciated by 5.56% to US$79.74 per barrel in the latest report. Gold prices appreciated by 3.31% to US$2,069.30 per ounce at the time of the report.
Outlook: We expect oil prices to remain at its elevated levels in the interim.
