FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Market
Opening system liquidity stayed negative today at -₦131.62 billion, from -c.₦527.96 billion recorded last Friday. Nevertheless, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) declined by 215bps to 19.95% and 225bps to 21.00%, respectively.
Outlook: We expect rates to close at similar levels tomorrow.
Treasury Bills
The treasury bills market was quiet, albeit with a slightly bullish undertone, as few cares were witnessed on select short and long-dated papers. Overall, the average mid-rate stayed unchanged at 6.94%.
Outlook: We expect the market to trade cautiously ahead of the bi-weekly NTB auction.
FGN Bonds
In today’s session, the DMO released January 2024 bond offer circular, which revealed a total offer of ₦360.00 billion (₦90.00 billion each) from the re-issuance of the 2027, 2029, 2033 and 2038 papers. In effect, this meant that the 2053 paper has been retired while the 2027 paper becomes the shortest dated auction paper, relative to the previous auction. Market responded with a mixed trend, with buyside interests at the tail end of the curve, particularly the 2042, 2049, 2050 and 2053 maturities and selling interests around the medium and short-dated papers. At the closing bell, market settled on a relatively bearish note, as the average mid-yield increased by c.2bps to close at 14.23%.
Outlook: We expect the mixed sentiment to persist.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market traded moderately bullish in today’s session, as positive sentiment mildly drove activity on the African curve. As a result, the average mid-yield in the Nigerian curve fell by 8bps to settle at 9.79%.
Outlook: We expect activity to thin out tomorrow, in the absence of any major jitter.
Equities
The Nigerian bourse traded sideways but closed bullish in today’s session, as the ASI appreciated by 1.30% to 95,768.12 points, with most buyside interests settling for the industrial sector, particularly DANGCEM (+9.99%). Thus, the YTD return settled higher at +28.08% while the total market capitalization jumped to ₦52.41 trillion. Activity was negative with 14.53% decline in total volume and a 4.23% decrease in total value traded.
TRANSCORP topped the volume charts with 66.52 million units while NESTLE topped the value chart with ₦1.97 billion. The Oil & Gas and Industrial Indices appreciated by 0.55%, and 5.15%, respectively, while the banking and consumer goods indices fell by 0.90% and 1.48%, respectively.
Outlook: We expect similar momentum tomorrow.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by 2.54% (or ₦22.89) to $/₦925.34 from $/₦902.45 recorded last Friday.
Outlook: The rate to hover around 800-1000 levels.
Commodities
Oil prices rose today after Ukraine reportedly attacked a major Russia fuel terminal over the weekend, raising renewed concerns about supply disruptions. Brent crude was reported at $79.55 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $74.73 per barrel, as at printing time. Gold slides on trimmed U.S. rate cut bets, touch $2,025.00 per ounce as of printing time.
Outlook: We expect oil prices to hover around $70 pb levels in the interim.
