FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Market
Opening system liquidity increased by 19.51% from ₦219.82 billion yesterday to ₦262.70 billion today. Nevertheless, the Open Repo Rate increased by 23bps to 15.61%, while the Overnight Rate fell by 19bps to 16.29%.
Outlook: We expect rates to hover at similar levels tomorrow.
Treasury Bills
Traction in the treasury bills market was relatively low today, although, with a bearish backdrop, depicting market appetite for higher rates in the interim. Although, few trades were mostly consummated on the long-dated papers. At the end of the session, market closed bearish, as average mid-yield increased by 189bps to close at 14.96%.
Outlook: We expect the bearish bias to persist.
FGN Bonds
After a quiet start in the local bonds market, activity was swerved around at mid-day. Towards the closing bell, the bearish sentiment intensified, as offers dominated, especially on the 2038, 2042 and 2053 papers. As a result, market settled on a bearish note and average mid-yield increased by c.9bps to settle at 16.56%.
Outlook: We expect market to continue to trend sideways, pending any significant catalyst, particularly the bond auction notice/calendar.
Eurobonds
In the early hours of today’s session, the Eurobonds market traded with caution, with minimal activity across the curve. At the release of the hotter-than-expected U.S Consumer Price Index (CPI), market sold off, with a sharp bearish theme in the SSA and MENA region. For context, The U.S inflation increased at 3.10% y/y in January (Est. 2.90%y.y) from 3.40% in December 2023, while month-on-month inflation rate increased at 0.40%, higher than 0.30% in both the previous month and market estimate. Consequently, Nigeria’s average mid-yield soared by 9bps to close at 9.73%.
Outlook: We expect the bearish trend to ease tomorrow, in the absence of surprises from the speeches of some Fed’s officials tomorrow.
Equities
The Nigerian equity market posted a mixed sentiment in today’s session. At the end of trading, market settled bearish, as the ASI lost 0.33% to settle at 101, 707.70 points while the year-to-date return ticked up to c.36.02% and total market capitalization was valued at ₦55.65 trillion. The bearish bias was impacted by profit taking on major banking tickers like UBA (-4.77%), ZENITHBANK (-3.79%), and GTCO (-1.00%).
Overall, trading activity was mixed, as total volume traded increased by 8.56%, while total value traded declined by 16.09%. VERITASKAP led the volume chart with 49.07 million units while UBA led the value charts with ₦587.50 billion. The Banking, and Industrial Indices declined by 1.85% and 0.10%, respectively, while the Consumer Goods Index lost 0.22%. On the flip side, Oil & Gas Indices increased by 0.09%.
Outlook: We expect a similar momentum tomorrow.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) appreciated by 2.30% (or ₦35.32) to $/₦1,499.07 from $/₦1,534.32 recorded last yesterday. Today, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) conducted its first sale of dollars in the spot FX market since September 2023, amounting to $86 million. This action reflects the apex bank’s ongoing efforts to stabilize the naira, which has been among the world’s worst-performing currencies in 2024.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist.
Commodities
Oil prices increased today, despite the higher-than-expected U.S. inflation. Brent crude reached $82.10 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $77.12 per barrel at the time of reporting. Although the price of gold fell to $2,005.80 per ounce at the same time.
Outlook: We expect geopolitical tensions to continue to weigh on crude oil prices.
