FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Market
System liquidity deteriorated further, starting at a deficit of -₦1.31 trillion compared to yesterday’s -₦641.23 billion. This decline was primarily attributed to the settlement of the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) auction, resulting in c.₦1.59 trillion being withdrawn from the system. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate and Overnight Rate increased by c.100 bps and c.108 bps to 25.50% and 26.50%, respectively.
Outlook: We expect rates to stay elevated in the interim.
Treasury Bills
Activity in the treasury bills market exhibited a mixed performance, with a slight bullish sentiment prevailing. Initially, auction winners sought to capitalize on their gains, particularly in the recently issued 182 and 364-day papers, partly due to constraints in securing funding to maintain their positions over an extended period. However, as the day progressed, there was a resurgence of interest from the buyside, selectively targeting attractively priced securities. Overall, the average mid-rate increased by c.99bps to settle at 15.09%.
Outlook: Tomorrow’s session is expected to post a similar theme, albeit leaning more to a bearish stance ahead of next week’s MPC meeting.
FGN Bonds
The FGN local bond market endured mixed to bearish sentiments, marked by prevalent selling activities notably seen in the 2034, 2038, and 2053 papers. Nevertheless, some buyers cautiously selected high-yielding securities. Ultimately, the average mid-yield edged up by 21bps to settle at 17.34%.
Outlook: We expect a bearish bias in tomorrow’s session.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market slightly recovered in today’s trading session with noticeable buyside interest across the curve, given the cautious approach to rate cut as disclosed by the minutes of the last FOMC meeting. Consequently, Nigeria’s average mid-yield declined by 4bps to close at 9.81%.
Outlook: We expect activity to ease tomorrow, due to the absence of significant market-moving events.
Equities
The Nigerian equity market resumed its bearish course today, given the dominance of the bears over the bulls (28 decliners vs 20 advancers). To quantify, the All-Share Index (ASI) shed 0.12% to settle at 101,239.10 points, with the year-to-date return settling at 35.39% and total market capitalization valued at ₦55.40 trillion.
Trading activity was relatively weaker compared to yesterday’s, with -16.43% and -24.54% in total volume and value traded, respectively. FBNH led both the volume and value charts, recording 31.86 million units traded valued at ₦917.27 million. Across sectors the Industrial sector gained 0.04% while the Oil & Gas Index flattened. In contract, the Banking and Consumer Goods Indices declined by 0.44% and 0.08%, respectively.
Outlook: We expect a similar momentum tomorrow..
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by 1.86% (or ₦28.73) to $/₦1,571.31 from $/₦1,542.58 recorded yesterday.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist.
Commodities
Oil prices increased, as signs point to tightening global crude market. Brent crude reached $83.18 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $78.12 per barrel at the time of reporting. The price of gold increased to $2,031.30 per ounce at the same time.
Outlook: We expect the fluctuation to linger, as geopolitical conflicts remain in the picture.
