FIXED INCOME MARKETS
MONEY MARKETS
Opening liquidity system improved, shifting to a positive balance of c.₦97.44 billion compared to yesterday’s deficit of -₦125.87 billion. This improvement occurred despite the settlement of the FGN bond auction today. As a result, the Open Repo Rate saw a decline of 222 bps, closing at 25.67%, while the Overnight Rate decreased by 218 bps, ending at 26.58%.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates hover at similar levels tomorrow.
Treasury Bills
There was buying activity in the treasury bills market, particularly in papers around the mid to long end of the curve. However, the market ended on a bearish note as investors exercised caution in anticipation of next week’s MPC meeting and NTB auction. Consequently, the average mid-rate closed 16 basis points higher at 15.65%.
Outlook: We expect a mixed theme in the interim.
FGN Bonds
Persistent selling interest was observed in various papers within the FGN local bonds market, while minimal buying activity was limited to select papers. Consequently, the average mid-yield remained relatively unchanged at 18.63%, reflecting weak traded volumes overall.
Outlook: We expect the bearish sentiment to resurface in tomorrow’s session.
Eurobonds
Today, the Eurobonds market displayed a bullish trend, driven by the consensus expectation of the Fed maintaining its hold stance at the FOMC meeting. Buyside interests were evident across the African curve throughout the trading session. In Egypt, Mohamed Maait, the Minister of Finance, disclosed the government’s aim to decrease the debt-to-GDP ratio to below 80% over the next three years. Additionally, he highlighted the positive impact of the €7.4 billion financial package from the European Union on the path to economic stability. This development has started to reflect positively in the improved outlook from credit rating institutions, notably Moody’s, for the Egyptian economy. Consequently, the Nigerian curve concluded on a bullish note, with the average mid-yield declining by 21 basis points to settle at 9.73%.
Outlook: We expect the bullish bias to persist tomorrow, given the less agitation to cut rate in the near term as noted at the Fed’s Press Conference today.
Equities
The Nigerian equity market experienced a further decline today, primarily influenced by FBNH, which retreated by approximately -9.90% after experiencing the same percentage gain yesterday. Profit-taking was also observed in other stocks such as TRANSCORP (-7.19%) and ZENITHBANK (-0.26%). At the close of trading, the All-Share Index fell by 0.28% to settle at 104,256.81 points. The year-to-date return stood at 39.43%, with market capitalization reported at ₦58.95 trillion.
Trading activity showed mixed trends, with total volume traded increasing by 6.82%, while total value traded declined by 29.69%. Similar to yesterday’s session, FBNH emerged as both the top volume and value traded, with 38.76 million units and ₦1.56 billion, respectively. The Banking Index closed negative (-1.79%), while the Consumer Goods (+0.14%), and Oil & Gas (+0.24%) settled bullish. Meanwhile, the Industrial Index closed flat.
Outlook: We expect a mixed play at tomorrow’s session.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) appreciated by 4.35% (or ₦67.96) to $/₦1,492.61 from $/₦1,560.57 recorded yesterday.
Outlook: We expect FX rate to appreciate further.
Commodities
Oil prices fell today after hitting multi-month highs in the previous session, as investors braced for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy announcement later in the day. As of writing time, the brent crude declined by 1.67% to $85.92 p/b, while the WTI fell by 2.12% to 81.70%. The price of Gold also witnessed a declined of 0.03% to 2,159.00 ahead of Fed’s policy decision.
Outlook: We expect oil prices to remain elevated.
