FIXED INCOME MARKETS
MONEY MARKETS
Opening system liquidity fell short at -₦537.25 billion, from ₦67.39 billion seen last week Friday. Overall, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) fell by 17 bps to 29.50%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 31 bps, to 30.38%.
Outlook: We expect interbank rates to stay elevated in the interim.
Treasury Bills
The treasury bills market opened the week bearish. To elucidate, market traded actively across board, particularly November 2024, February, and March 2025. Consequently, the average mid-rate increased by 101 bps, to close at 18.09%.
Outlook: We expect the bearish sentiment to resurface tomorrow.
FGN Bonds
The FGN domestic bonds market stayed quiet, mainly because investors turned their attention to the primary market. The Debt Management Office (DMO) offered a total of ₦450.00 billion across the Apr 2029 (NEW), Feb 2031, and 2034 bonds, but ended up selling approximately ₦626.81 billion across the three tenors, with subscriptions totalling over ₦920.09 billion. As a result, there was only minimal interest noted in the 2029 and 2038 maturities. Nonetheless, average mid-yield remained unaltered at 18.75%.
Outlook: We expect the market to trend mixed to bullish, following the decline in stop rates across all tenors.
Eurobonds
During today’s trading session, the Eurobond market exhibited a bearish trend. The selling pressure was fueled by the release of US retail sales data for March, which surpassed expectations at 0.70% compared to the anticipated 0.30%. Consequently, the African bond market leaned towards a bearish bias, leading to a 19 basis points increase in Nigeria’s average mid-yield, closing at 9.78%.
In other news, Ghana has encountered obstacles in reaching an agreement with two groups of bondholders to restructure $13 billion of international bonds. This setback hampers Ghana’s efforts to swiftly recover from default and economic challenges. Talks have been suspended temporarily after the International Monetary Fund suggested that the proposed deal did not align with its debt sustainability criteria, which assesses a country’s ability to manage its debt burden, as stated by the government in a released statement.
Outlook: We expect the bearish sentiment to subside tomorrow.
Equities
The Nigerian Equity market continued its bearish streak at the start of the week, with sustained profit taking across several bellwether tickers, particularly the banking sector. Thus, the All-Share Index lost 0.53% to settle at 101,777.12 points, while the year-to-date return and market capitalization was reported at 36.11% and ₦57.56 trillion, respectively.
All sectorial indices closed flat, except the Banking Index which shed 3.83%. UBA led the total volume charts with 42.25 million units, while MTNN topped the value chart with ₦1.10 billion in value.
Outlook: We expect the bearish trend to linger tomorrow.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) appreciated by ₦6.34 (or 0.55%) to $/₦1,136.04 compared to $/₦1,142.38 recorded last week Friday.
Outlook: We expect exchange rate to stabilize in the near term.
Commodities
U.S. crude oil trended lower today, as traders breathed a sigh of relief after Israel fended off a large-scale air assault by Iran and the U.S. emphasized it wants to avoid a wider war in the Middle East. Brent crude fell by 1.08% to $89.45 per barrel, while WTI shed by 1.18% decrease to $84.65 per barrel. Similarly, the price of gold declined by 0.45%, to $2,363.40 per ounce.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to ease in the interim, pending any further escalation.
