FIXED INCOME MARKETS
MONEY MARKETS
System liquidity remained tight for most of the week but improved on Friday to ₦170.43 billion from the -₦622.46 billion recorded the previous week. However, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) increased by 244 basis points to 32.40%, and the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 232 basis points to 33.00% compared to the previous week.
Outlook: The interbank rates are expected to remain at similar levels next week, as the settlement of today’s OMO auction is anticipated to offset the inflows from FAAC.
Treasury Bills
The T-bills market started quietly as investors remained cautious ahead of the 2-day MPC meeting. After the MPC raised the benchmark interest rate by 150bps to 26.25%, offer yields in the secondary market adjusted upwards. However, the surprising result at the NTB auction, where the 1-year paper declined by 1bp to 20.69% while the stop rates on the 91-Day and 182-Day papers increased by 26bps and 44.90% to 16.5000% and 17.4490% respectively, led to a bullish secondary market as investors sought to fill unmet bids.
On Friday, the bullish trend eased, as offers trended upwards following the result of the OMO auction, where the CBN offered ₦500.00 billion but sold ₦1,158.21 billion (₦2 billion less than the total subscription). Furthermore, the stop rates increased by 0.99bps, 26bps, and 99bps to 18.9999%, 19.7400%, and 22.4900% for the short, medium, and long-dated papers, respectively. Consequently, the market settled bearish, as the average mid-rate increased by 61bps w/w to 20.30%.
Outlook: We expect a mixed-to-bearish sentiment next week.
FGN Bonds
The FGN local bonds market had a mixed bias across various maturities, leaning bearish due to the hawkish outcome of the MPC meeting. The CBN raised the interest rate by 150bps from 24.75% to 26.25%, while keeping other parameters unchanged. As a result, the secondary market responded with higher offer yields. However, selective trading was observed until the end of the week. Overall, the market closed bearish, with the average mid-yield increasing by 26bps w/w from 18.23% to 18.50%.
Outlook: We expect the trend to stay mixed next week.
Equities
The Nigerian Equity market extended its bearish sentiment this week, with selloffs across several banking tickers. However, the buyside interests across the Industrial, Consumer Goods, and Oil & Gas Indices cushioned the impact on the overall market. Overall, the All-Share Index depreciated by 0.52%, week-on-week to close at 97,612.51 points. The year-to-date return and market capitalization moderated to 30.54% and ₦55.22 trillion, respectively.
Consequently, the Banking sector lost 7.35%, while the Industrial, Consumer Goods and Oil & Gas Indices increased by 0.19%, 0.31% and 0.72%, respectively, week-on-week. ACCESSCORP led both the total volume charts with 297.08 million units and the values charts with N5.02 billion.
Outlook: We expect a similar trend next week.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) appreciated by ₦14.52 (or 0.97%) to $/₦1,482.81 compared to $/₦1,497.33 recorded at the close of last week.
Outlook: We expect volatility to persist next week.
Eurobonds
The Eurobond market had a mixed bias this week. However, the bearish sentiment remained dominant due to the hawkish Fed minutes, which suggested that US interest rates will stay higher for a longer period. As a result, the market closed bearish, with the average mid-yield increasing by 14 basis points week-on-week to 9.77%.
Outlook: The market is expected to trade cautiously next week, with the release of US GDP for Q1 2024 and the PCE Price Index data.
Commodities
Oil closed bearish this week, as the summer driving season gets underway with the Memorial Day holiday. Overall, Brent oil decreased by 2.58% to $81.81 per barrel, while WTI fell by 3.21% to 77.49 per barrel. The price of gold also decreased by 3.20% to $2,340.00 per ounce, as of writing time.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist.
