FIXED INCOME MARKETS
MONEY MARKETS
System liquidity alternated between surplus and deficit balances throughout the week. Overall, by the end of the week, system liquidity opened in a deficit at -₦90.43 billion, compared to ₦80.71 billion the previous Friday. Thus, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) rose by 86 bps to 29.95%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 71 bps to 30.65% compared to the previous week.
Outlook: We expect system liquidity to stay weak next week, in the absence of any major inflows.
Treasury Bills
In the first half of the week, the treasury bills market was bearish due to tight system liquidity and concerns related to the OMO auction. The CBN offered a total of ₦250.00 billion across different papers, with most subscription skewed towards the long-dated paper. The CBN allotted ₦513.95 billion worth of OMO bills, slightly below the total subscription value. The stop rates were 18.74%, 19.59%, and 22.33%, slightly lower than previous rates.
At the NTB auction, the DMO offered ₦221.13 billion but sold ₦278.43 billion despite receiving ₦713.89 billion in subscriptions. The stop rates for the 91-day paper stayed unchanged at 16.50%, while the 180-day increased by 5.1bps and the 364-day paper declined by 2bps to 20.67%.
The market showed a mixed bias but settled on a bullish note by the end of the week. Overall, the average mid-rate declined by 60 bps w/w to 19.92%.
Outlook: We expect the mixed trend to persist at a less aggressive pace, alongside jitters around the ₦44.23 billion offer at next week’s NTB auction.
FGN Bonds
The local FGN bonds market saw reduced volatility this week, with a mixed-to-bearish sentiment prevailing across the market. Activity was focused on specific bond maturities such as 2031, 2033, and 2053. The overall market performance was bearish, leading to a 6 bps increase in the average mid-yield to 18.55%.
Outlook: We expect the mixed trajectory to linger next week, subject to any other significant driver.
Equities
After a volatile week, the Nigerian stock market settled bearish for the week, as the All-Share Index depreciated by 0.08%, w/w to close at 99,221.14 points. The year-to-date return and market capitalization settled at 32.70% and ₦56.13 trillion, respectively.
While OANDO (+23.73%) and PRESCO (+9.99%), drove the bullish bias, TRANSCORP (11.21%), and FIDELITYBK (-9.80%) amongst other banking stocks drove market downwards.
Consequently, the Banking and Oil & Gas Indices depreciated by 0.62% w/w and 0.18% w/w, respectively, while the Consumer Goods Index gained 0.33% w/w. The Industrial Goods Index closed relatively flat.
Outlook: We expect the mixed sentiment to resurface next week.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) appreciated by ₦2.00 (or 0.13%) to $/₦1,483.99 compared to $/₦1,485.99 recorded at the close of last week.
Outlook: We expect volatility to persist next week.
Eurobonds
The Eurobond market started the week on a bullish note, suggesting anticipation for positive economic data. However, Tuesday’s trading activity shifted to a slight bearish bias, despite the decline in US Job Openings data. Later in the week, the market turned bullish due to lower-than-expected US ADP Employment data and higher-than-expected US Jobless claims figures. By the end of the week, the US Nonfarm Payroll printed higher-than-forecasted at 272k (Est. 182k) from 165k, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.00% from 3.90%. As a result, the bullish sentiment eased off, and there was some selling interest, given the mixed job report. Overall, the market settled bearish, with the average mid-yield increasing by 10bps w/w to 9.77%.
Outlook: Next week, market sentiment would be largely determined by the US CPI data and outcome of US FOMC meeting.
Commodities
Crude oil prices are on track for a third consecutive weekly decline due to concerns about a potential decrease in demand, despite OPEC+ intending to ramp up production. In general, Brent oil dropped by 2.11% to $79.90 per barrel, and WTI declined by 1.97% to $75.47 per barrel. Similarly, the price of gold fell by 0.82% to $2,326.00 per ounce at the time of writing.
Outlook: We expect a similar trend of volatility next week.
