Nigeria’s headline inflation eased for the fourth consecutive month, settling at 17.38% year-on-year in July 2021 vs 17.75% recorded in June 2021. This comes on the back of persistent decrease in food prices, with the food sub index declining to ca 21.03% from 21.83% the previous month, while the core sub-index rose to 13.72% from 13.09% in June 2021.
We expect continued disinflation in the near term, due to the high base-effect of the previous year. Current market yields should also adjust in tandem, commencing with the FGN bonds auction scheduled for tomorrow
FIXED INCOME MARKET
System liquidity increased slightly today, opening with a balance of ca ₦21.78 billion, better than previous day’s opening of ca ₦14.05 billion, as OMO maturities of ₦89.00 billion impacted the system. Nonetheless, the Open Buy Back (OBB) rate remained stable at 17.00%, while the Overnight (ON) rate trended higher to settle 17.67% from 17.50%, the previous day.
The NTB secondary market traded on a muted note, with scanty trades done on the August 2022 papers at 6.45% levels. Overall, average yield stayed flat day-on-day. The OMO secondary market also remained quiet, as the dearth of supply lingered. Thus, average rates remained flat, day-on-day.
The FGN bonds secondary market sustained its quiet stance today, as investors traded cautiously ahead of tomorrow’s Primary Market auction. However, some interest was seen on the 2035 and 2036 maturities at 12.40% and 12.50% levels respectively. Overall, average yield dipped by 7bps, day-on-day.
Bearish sentiments dominated the Eurobonds space today, with sell-side activity witnessed across the curve. Thus, average yield gained ca 4bps, day-on-day.
The Nigerian equities market returned to positive territory today as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) gained 0.11% day-on-day to close at 39,550.36pts, while market year-to-date loss reduced to -1.79%. This was largely due to gains in Dangote Cement Plc (+3.31%) and First Bank of Nigeria Plc (+0.68%).
The NSE Industrial Goods Index gained ca 1.76%, while the NSE Consumer Goods, Oil and Gas and banking indices lost ca 4.61%, 0.15% and 0.02% day-on-day, respectively.
Transnational Corporation Plc led the volume chart with ca 11.29 million units, while Nestle Nigeria Plc led the value chart with ca ₦2.17 billion worth of trades.
In the parallel market, the Naira remained stable against the U.S Dollar at ₦515.00/$1.00, while depreciating against the Pound Sterling and Euro to ₦706.00/₤1.00 and ₦605.00/€1.00 from ₦705.00/₤1.00 and ₦600.00/€1.00 respectively. FMDQ Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) appreciated to ₦411.50/$1.00 from ₦411.67/$1.00.
Global crude oil prices declined further today, on reports that daily crude oil processing in China, the world’s biggest crude oil importer fell to its lowest in 14 months in July 2021. Thereby raising concern of a drop in global crude oil demand. Thus, Brent Crude oil price lost ca 0.47% day-on-day to settle at $69.18pb, while WTI fell ca 0.76% to $66.78pb, as at report time. Spot Gold gained ca 0.09% day-on-day to $1,791.61 per ounce as at report time.