Nigeria Q1’2022  GDP grew by 3.11% Y-o-Y

• The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q1:2022 today, revealing a 3.11% Y-o-Y growth in the economy.

• Although the domestic growth rate slowed for the 3rd consecutive quarter (from a high of 5.01% in Q2:2021 to 4.03% in Q3:2021 and 3.98% in Q4:2021) it printed slightly higher than Bloomberg’s estimate of 3.10%.

• The oil sector contracted by -26.04% Y-o-Y in Q1:2022, a significant decline from -8.06% contraction in Q4:2021 and worse off (2.21%) recorded in Q1:2021.

• On the other hand, the non-oil sector expanded by +6.08% in Q1:2022, higher than the published figures of +4.73% and +0.79% in Q4:2021 and Q1:2021 respectively.

• Overall, the oil sector’s contribution rose to 6.63% of total real GDP in Q1:2022 from 5.19% in Q4:2021, while non-oil contribution declined to 93.37% in Q1:2022, from 94.81% in Q4:2021.

• The positive trend since Q4:2020 is an indication of a gradual return to economic stability, however, the downside risks to stable projection on growth trend include persistently rising inflation, exchange rate uncertainty and insecurity and concerns.

• Additionally, as the election cycle gets into full swing, concerns around potentially driven policy shifts which could affect the direction of the economy, especially in the short term, are expected to arise.

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