FIXED INCOME MARKETS
System liquidity opened lower today with a balance of c.₦309.46 billion (vs Friday’s opening balance of c.₦985.49 billion) due to the Retail FX SMIS and CRR debit that took place at the close of last week. Nonetheless, the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased to 11.13% and 11.69%, respectively compared to Friday’s closing figures of 12.13% and 12.43%.
Outlook: We anticipate the interbank rates to continue to trade at low double digits amid modest funding pressure.
The treasury bills market traded mixed to bullish, as early sell interests across August and November 2023 papers turned bullish as the day went by, with demand witnessed across the curve, extending to January and February 2024 papers. Consequently, the average mid-rate declined by 12bps to 2.94%.
Outlook: We expect market players to trade cautiously ahead of the NTB auction later this week
The local bonds market traded sideways today, with bulk of its activities centered around the on-the-run bonds. The market opened with offers on 2028 paper and demand on 2037 and 2049 papers. Subsequently, mixed sentiment spilled across the same maturities, however, skewed to more buy interests. Overall, average mid-yield dipped 2bps to settle at 13.46%.
Outlook: We expect similar trend to persist tomorrow.
Nigeria’s Eurobonds market traded mildly bullish today, with buy interests driven by general positive sentiments, reverberating across several SSA papers. The average yield declined by 18bps to 11.77%.
Outlook: We expect the bullish bias to wane, in the absence of any positive catalyst.
The Nigerian bourse closed on a positive note today, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) appreciated in value by c.0.14% day-on-day to close at 55,605.57 points while year-to-date return closed at c.8.50%. Buying interest in UBA (0.10%) WAPCO (0.05%), and DANGSUGAR (0.10%) drove the upward trajectory. The NGX Industrial Goods index appreciated in value by 0.01%, while the Consumer Goods and Banking sectors depreciated in value by c. 0.14%, and 0.29%, respectively. However, the Oil & Gas Index closed flat. TRANSCORP led the volume charts with c. 11.79 million units, while GEREGU led the value charts with c. ₦ 604.27 million worth of trades.
Outlook: We expect more positive performance in the Nigerian domestic bourse.
FMDQ’s Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) rate appreciated to ₦ 461.33/US$1.00 from ₦ 461.75/US$1.00 recorded at last week Friday’s close.
Outlook: We expect sustained FX pressures, CBN intervention and depreciation of the Naira.
Oil prices witnessed a decline today amid China’s announcement of 5% economic growth target for 2023 (Market Est. 5.50%). Brent Crude Oil price decreased by c.-0.37% day-on-day to settle at US$85.51pb, while WTI also fell by c.-0.33% day-on-day to settle at US$79.42pb as at the time of this report. Spot Gold appreciated in value by c.0.43% day-on-day to close at US$1,862.50per ounce as of report time.
Outlook: We anticipate more volatilities in Oil prices amid demand recovery in China and monetary policy stance across Europe.