FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Opening system liquidity slipped into the negative territory (c.-₦280.23 billion, compared to yesterday’s opening balance of c.₦197.27billion long), following yesterday’s FGN bond auction settlement which caused most banks to lean towards CBN’s Standing Lending Facility (SLF) for funding. Consequently, the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) increased to 18.50% and 19.00% respectively compared to 18.38% and 18.75% recorded yesterday.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates to remain at elevated levels barring any significant inflows.
Activity in the treasury bills market was partially active, although bearish. The first half of today’s session was stirred with offers across the long-dated papers, particularly 7 and 14 March 2024. In the second half, market toned down quiet, given the low buyside interests. Nevertheless, average yield declined by 3bps to settle at 5.47%.
Outlook: We expect a similar performance in tomorrow’s session.
The local bonds market traded mixed to bullish, as sell interest were recorded on 2026 and 2028 papers, while buyside activity was observed on 2037 and 2049 papers at c.14.80% and c.15.30% respectively. Thus, the average mid-yield declined by c.17bps to settle at 13.46%.
Outlook: We expect activity to trend in similar posture, pending any major driver.
The Eurobonds market was generally bullish today, suggesting market satisfaction with regards to expectations of the rate decision at the FOMC meeting. Investors looked to cherry-pick attractive yield levels, amid a quick easing out in selling interests. Consequently, average yield declined by 28bps to 12.90%.
Outlook: We expect the direction of market sentiment to retreat to country-specific catalyst (across SSA region) in the interim.
The Nigerian bourse settled on the negative side today, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) depreciated in value by c.-0.02% day-on-day to close at 54,922.57 while year-to-date return closed at c.7.16%. Selling interest in GTCO (-0.05%), and FIDELITYBK (-0.07%) led to the market to close on a bearish note today. The NGX Consumer Goods and Banking indices, both depreciated in value by c. -0.04%, and c. -0.45%, respectively. While both the NGX Industrial Goods and Oil & Gas indices closed flat. TRANSCORP led the volume charts at c. 31.48 billion units, and MTNN led the value charts at c. ₦ 370.21 billion.
Outlook: We expect a similar play at tomorrow’s session.
FMDQ’s Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) rate depreciated to ₦ 461.67/US$1.00 from ₦ 461.50/US$1.00 recorded at the close of yesterday.
Outlook: We expect the Naira to remain steady at $/₦461 – 462 levels at the NAFEX window.
Following three sessions of increases, oil prices dipped on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized credit risks for the world’s largest economy in the banking sector. Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks increased more than anticipated. Brent oil prices fell by c. -1.19% to $75.78 per barrel in intraday trade, while WTI depreciated by c.-1.42% day-on-day to settle at US$69.89pb as at print time. Spot Gold appreciated in value by c.1.66% day-on-day to close at US$1,981.70per ounce as of report time.
Outlook: We expect further decline in global oil prices tomorrow.