FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Opening System liquidity declined today, printing a balance of c.-₦183.18 billion, compared to yesterday’s opening balance of c.-₦55.66 billion. Consequently, the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) increased to 18.67% from18.63% that was recorded yesterday, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) remained unchanged at 19.00%.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates to remain elevated tomorrow, in the absence of any major liquidity inflows.
The NTB market witnessed buyside interest post NTB-auction, especially on the newly issued 1-year paper (11-Apr-2024). Bids started out at 12.60%, but closed at 12.00% with offers firmly below the 12.00% handle. Thus, average mid-rate declined by 22bps to close at 8.57%.
Outlook: We expect the same sentiment to persist tomorrow.
The FGN bonds market was largely muted, as mild demand was recorded on 2049s at 15.60% while offers were c.5-8bps apart. Also, there were selling interests observed across the auction bonds (2028s, 2032s, 2042s and 2050s), but demand was weak. Overall, the average mid yield closed relatively flat at 13.96%.
Outlook: We anticipate a muted session tomorrow, as investors remain standoffish ahead of Monday’s FGN bond auction.
Activity in the Eurobond space was mixed to bearish. The MENAs, Egypt especially, witnessed some buyside interest, while the major SSAs (Nigeria and Angola) observed a mildly bearish theme.
The government of Ghana today at the Investors presentation meeting, described in detail, the terms of the IMF deal, the ambitious macroeconomic objectives for the medium term and the progressive talks with external debt holders as part of the debt restructuring program.
Outlook: We expect market activity to be relatively mixed in the interim.
The Nigerian equity market closed on a negative note today, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) closed at 51,953.41 , while year-to-date return closed at c 1.35%. Selling interest in ZENITHBANK (-0.45%) and in FIDELITYBK (-0.29%) drove the negative trend that was recorded in the market today. The NGX Consumer Goods, and Industrial Goods gained in value by 0.05%, and 0.16% respectively. On the flip side, the Banking Index depreciated by 1.08%, while the Oil and Gas Index remained unchanged. TRANSCORP led the volume charts with c.107.21 million units while ZENITHBANK led the value charts with c. ₦ 521.29 million.
Outlook: We expect the market to see a rebound tomorrow.
FMDQ’s Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) rate appreciated to ₦462.83/US$1.00 from ₦463.67/US$1.00 recorded at the close yesterday.
Outlook: We expect the Naira to remain steady at $/₦462 – 463 levels at the NAFEX window.
Fears of an impending recession in the United States, the world’s top oil user, impacted on oil prices, which had reached multi-month high levels the previous session. Afterwards, Brent oil prices depreciated by c. 1.11% to $86.36 per barrel in intraday trade, while WTI decreased by c 1.09% day-on-day to settle at US$82.35pb as at print time. Similarly, Spot Gold gained in value by c. 1,46% day-on-day to close at US$2,054.20 per ounce as of report time.
Outlook: We expect the negative sentiment to extend further.