FIXED INCOME MARKETS
System liquidity declined this week, significantly tied to CBN’s debits across banks who failed to meet the 65% minimum Loan to Deposit Ratio requirement. For context, system liquidity declined by 47.96% from ₦683.56 billion recorded at close of last week to ₦355.74 billion long. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) ascended by 493bps and 543bps to 5.83% and 6.83%, respectively.
Outlook: We expect interbank rates to trade at similar levels next week, pending any significant inflows.
A sizeable portion of trades were executed on long-dated papers this week. Most trading sessions witnessed heightened activities on the one-year paper, especially the 25-July 2024 maturity, where rates fell to low 9% levels from c.10% levels in the secondary market last week Friday. Nevertheless, average yield increased by 18bps to 7.20%, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect activities to be tilted towards the NTB auction, as the DMO would be offering ₦153.99bn worth of treasury bills.
The local bonds market displayed a mixed trend this week. Market started on a calm note, switched to a bullish theme, and subsequently trended bearish. Most activities were seen on the 2053 paper, as well as 2050, 2049, 2027 and 2026 papers. Overall, market closed on a bullish note, as average yield declined by 19bps to 13.79% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect activity to wane next week, in the absence of any significant jitters.
The Eurobonds market started the week with positive sentiment, although, market became bearish for the most part of the week, with additional sell pressures linked to Fitch’s downgrade of US debt rating. Meanwhile, the total jobs added by both the US private and public sectors for the month of July fell shy of market expectation. Despite the relief seen today, market settled on a bearish note, as yield increased by 11bps to 10.25%, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect market activities to be cantered on US inflation data next week.
The Nigerian equity market closed on a bullish note, week on week, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) appreciated by c 0.43% to close at 65,198.08 points, while year-to-date return settled at c 27.21%. Buying interest on DANGSUGAR (+25.00%), and NB (+16.44%) drove the positive trend this week.
The NGX Industrial and Consumer Goods Indices appreciated by 0.23%, and 2.27%, respectively, while the NGX Banking and Oil & Gas Index depreciated by 2.13% and 0.68% week-on-week. AIICO led the volume charts with 336.55 million units, while MTNN led the value charts c. ₦ 3.75 billion, this week.
Outlook: We expect the positive posture to wane next week.
FMDQ’s I & E rate appreciated by ₦34.75 to $/₦743.07 compared to $/₦777.82 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
Oil prices hovered above $80 per barrel this week, as Saudi Arabia’s voluntary output cut continued to impact the market. Brent oil prices appreciated by c. 0.94% to $85.79 per barrel, week-on-week, while WTI appreciated by c 2.20% week-on-week to settle at US$82.21pb. Spot Gold appreciated by c. 0.93% to US$1,978.60 per ounce as of report time.
Outlook: We expect oil prices to cling to its $80pb levels next week, pending any alternating catalyst.