FIXED INCOME MARKETS
System liquidity experienced a shortfall over the week, primarily influenced by the funding of the FGN bond auction. To provide context, there was a 74.96% week-on-week decline in system liquidity, decreasing from ₦317.32 billion to ₦79.46 billion. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) saw significant expansions of 425bps and 462bps, reaching 20.83% and 22.20%, respectively, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect interbank rates to maintain its double-digit levels next week.
The treasury bills market commenced the week on a calm note, characterized by mild activity on select papers. Subsequently, a prevailing bullish sentiment dominated across the yield curve and persisted throughout the week. Notably, the longest dated paper (07-Nov-2024) traded at levels below 15%. Thus, this robust demand led to a decrease in the average mid-rate by c.51bps, settling at 11.15% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect market activity to be centred around the NTB auction next week, as the DMO will be offering treasury bills worth ₦211.71 billion.
This week, the aftermath of the FGN local bond auction triggered a bearish theme, evident in the upward shift of the yield curve following the substantial surge in stop rates. The DMO allotted ₦434.50 billion worth of bonds, surpassing the ₦360.00 billion offered by approximately 20.69%. Notably, the stop rates on the 2029, 2033, 2038, and 2053 papers witnessed significant increases of 110bps, 125bps, 170bps, and 140bps, respectively. Subsequent trading sessions in the secondary market continued on a bearish trajectory, albeit with intermittent support from occasional buyers. Consequently, the average mid-yield recorded an uptick of c.34bps to close at 16.37% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect activity to trend sideways next week.
Following the mixed activity in the early part of the week, the lower-than-expected US CPI data sparked optimism across major African Eurobonds, sustaining buyside interests till the end of the week. This sentiment suggests a potential hold stance by the US Federal Reserve at its next meeting. Notably, US inflation for October grew at 3.20% (against an estimate of 3.30%), down from 3.70% in September. As a result, the Nigerian Eurobonds market concluded the week on a bullish note, with the average mid-yield rate decreasing by 50 basis points to settle at 10.82% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the minutes of the last FOMC meeting to provide clarity on the Fed’s short-term plans.
The Nigerian bourse touched a new high this week. To elucidate, the equity market started the week with a bearish bias, due to the sizeable selloffs on BUACEMENT. Although, subsequent trading sessions ended on a bullish note, leading the ASI index to peak at 71,112.99 points, precisely today. The buyside interests on OANDO, and NB contributed to the positive sentiment. Further, the NGX All Share Index gained 0.37%, while the year-to-date return settled at approximately 38.75%.
The NGX Consumer Goods and Oil & Gas Indices appreciated by 0.24% and 2.61%, week-on-week, respectively, while banking and Industrial Indices lost 0.04% and 1.18%, on a week-on-week basis. JULI led the volume charts with 171.74 million units while UBA led the value charts with ₦1.66 billion.
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by ₦15.61 (or 2.01%) to $/₦791.75 compared to $/₦776.14 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
The trajectory of global crude oil prices embarked on a bullish journey early in the week following the International Energy Agency’s upward revision of demand growth forecasts. However, as the week unfolded, oil prices faced a downturn due to weakened demand from China. The oil market is poised for a bearish week, with Brent oil experiencing a 2.58% decline to $79.33 per barrel week-on-week, and WTI losing 3.37% to US$78.86 per barrel as of the latest report. In contrast, Gold prices enjoyed a sustained bullish momentum throughout the week, driven by expectations of a potential pause in the US Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. Spot Gold appreciated by 2.47%, reaching US$1,985.60 per ounce at the time of this report.
Outlook: We expect oil prices to remain at its elevated levels in the interim.