FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Markets
System liquidity remained positive throughout the week, albeit experiencing a decrease at week’s end, dropping by 34.22% to ₦77.17 billion compared to ₦117.33 billion the previous week. The Open Repo Rate (OPR) rose by 75 bps to 16.25%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased by 7 bps to 16.93% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates to nudge higher next week, largely due to the FGN and NTB primary market auction funding.
Treasury Bills
This week, the treasury bills market experienced subdued activity, indicating a preference among participants for higher rates in the short term. Most of the activity was skewed to the long-dated papers, with trades consummated between 16.70% and 17.00% levels. At the end of the week, market settled on a bullish note, as average mid-rate shed 81bps to settle at 13.57%.
Outlook: We expect market’s attention to be tilted to the NTB primary market auction next week, while monitoring the impact of the FGN bond auction.
FGN Bonds
During the first half of the week, trading activity primarily focused on bonds maturing in 2029, 2033, 2038, 2042, and 2053, with sentiment being mixed. However, by mid-week, the DMO surprised the market by announcing an astronomical ₦2.5 trillion offer size for February 2024 FGN bond auction, specifically targeting the 2031 and 2034 new issues. This unexpected development led to a repricing of the bond yield curve, resulting in a brief bullish bias at the long end and a bearish bias at the short end and belly of the curve. Towards the end of the week, the market traded cautiously, gradually leaning towards a bearish stance. Overall, the average mid-yield increased by 17 bps week-on-week, reaching 16.71%.
Outlook: The FGN bond auction is expected to dictate the direction of the market next week.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market experienced fluctuations influenced by significant economic data from the United States, alongside some country-specific concerns. Early in the week, hotter-than-expected US CPI data instigated a pronounced bearish sentiment, which persisted mid-week. However, by the end of the week, the market reversed course, with increased buying activity across the curve, driven by lower-than-expected US Retail Sales data. At the close of the week, market settled on a bullish note as average mid-yield declined by c. 9bps to settle at 9.55%.
Outlook: We expect mild activity next week, even as market keep tabs with the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, S&P PMI (services and manufacturing), and speeches of some Fed’s officials.
Equities
In the Nigerian stock market this week, bullish sentiment outweighed bearish activity. While the banking sector saw a decline of 1.34% w/w due to ongoing profit-taking and the industrial sector shed 1.83% w/w, the consumer goods and oil & gas indices surged by 10.96% w/w and 5.25% w/w respectively. This overall bullish trend was propelled by significant buying interest in stocks such as GEREGU (33.30%), BUAFOODS (20.82%), AIRTELAFRI (10.00%), and SEPLAT (9.61%).
Consequently, the All-Share Index recorded a notable increase of 3.79% week-on-week, closing at 105,722.78 points. YTD performance settled at 41.39%, with market capitalization reaching ₦57.85 trillion. UBA led the top volumes chat with 134.39 million units while GEREGU led the values chat with ₦5.68 billion.
Outlook: We expect mixed activities next week, considering the attention in the fixed income market, anticipated earnings and dividend payout.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by ₦67.99 (or 4.63%) to $/₦1,537.96 compared to $/₦1,469.97 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
Commodities
Oil prices are poised for a weekly increase, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which overshadow concerns regarding persistent inflation and demand outlook. Latest figures show Brent rising by 1.47% to $83.40 per barrel, and WTI climbing 2.60% to $78.84 per barrel week-on-week. Conversely, Gold saw a depreciation of 0.78% to $2,022.80 per ounce during this period.
Outlook: We expect oil price to remain elevated next week, pending a bearish jitter.
