FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Markets
System liquidity stayed in the negative this week. Despite the absence of significant inflows, the robust NTB auction funding worsened the liquidity situation to close at -₦2,221.81 billion from -₦93.57 billion recorded last Friday. As a result, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) rose by 266 bps to 29.82%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) expanded by 281 bps to 31.00% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect interbank rates to cling to its elevated levels next week.
Treasury Bills
Activities in the treasury bills market was less active, given the tightness in system liquidity. Moreso, the result of the NTB auction was somewhat in-line with market expectation. At the auction, the DMO sold c.₦1.32 trillion despite c.₦337.89 billion on offer. The stop rates for the 91, 182 and 364-day papers increased by 24bps, 50bps and 249bps to 17.24%, 18.00% and 21.49%, respectively, while the bid/cover was 1.26x. Post auction, investors cherry picked the attractive yields on the mid and long tenors, particularly 06 June 2024 and 06 Mar 2025 papers. Overall, market closed the week bearish.
Outlook: We expect the bearish sentiment to resume next week, while players trade cautiously ahead of the NTB auction.
FGN Bonds
Similarly, the FGN local bonds market settled bearish, given that selling interest dominated the market, amidst the mixed sentiment throughout the week. For context, the average mid-yield soared by 47bps to close at 17.96%. This was due to higher stop yields at the NTB auction and liquidity crunch.
Outlook: We expect players to trade cautiously, while anticipating the release of March’s FGN bond primary market offering.
Eurobonds
For the most part of the week, the Eurobonds market traded mixed, with less volatility. Given the lower-than-anticipated ADP employment data, Jerome Powel’s less hawkish testimonial to the Congress, and partly higher US unemployment rate at 3.90% (Est. 3.70%). Overall, average mid-yield declined by 11bps to settle at 9.58%.
Outlook: We expect market the next hurdle for the market to be the US CPI data.
Equities
The Nigerian stock market climbed back to its 100k mark, due to the bargain hunting on the newly listed TRANSPOWER (+46.38%), with its positive sentiment spilling into TRANSCORP (+19.05%). Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) surged by 2.61%, week-on-week closing at 101,330.85 points. The year-to-date return settled at 35.52%, with market capitalization reported at ₦57.29 billion.
Further, TRANSCORP led the. Across the sectors, the Industrial Index increased by 1.59%, while Banking and Consumer Goods Indices declined by 1.40% and 1.21%, respectively, week-on-week. Meanwhile, the Oil & Gas Indec closed flat.
Outlook: We expect the bullish sentiment to persist next week.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by ₦79.15 (or 5.11%) to $/₦1,627.40 compared to $/₦1,548.25 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
Commodities
Oil prices steadied as market weighed mixed U.S. jobs report. Brent crude declined by 1.68% week-on-week to $82.15 per barrel, while WTI fell by 2.44% to $78.08 per barrel over the same period. As of the latest update, the price of gold has increased by 4.28% to $2,185.40 per ounce during this timeframe.
Outlook: We expect the oil prices to remain elevated next week.
