The domestic inflation rate in October printed at 15.99% year-on-year, which showed a further decline from 16.63% recorded in September 2021, as indicated in the reports released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The sustained trend in inflation figures can be traced to the base year effect and food harvest seasonality which supported food prices, indicating the seventh consecutive monthly decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
On a month-on-month basis, the Food Sub-index and Core sub-index moderated to settle at 0.91% and 0.80%, respectively compared to 1.26% and 1.24% in September 2021. Following the same trend, the Urban and Rural Inflation figures stood at 16.52% and 15.48% respectively Y-o-Y vs 17.19% and 16.08% recorded in September 2021.
Domestic headline inflation is likely to moderate further in the near term. Nonetheless, a probable reversal in trend may occur as we approach the yuletide season, which is ascribed to increased consumer spending. Furthermore, we anticipate that the recently published figures will have an impact on market sentiments this week, as market players focus on the upcoming bond auction.
FIXED INCOME MARKET
Interbank system liquidity opened with a credit balance of ca ₦48.50 billion, significantly lower than Friday’s opening balance of ₦460.88 billion. However, the Open Buy Back (OBB) and Overnight (ON) rates trended lower to 13.25% and 13.75% from 14.50% and 15.25% respectively, on Friday.
The NTB secondary market reflected a quiet theme at the start of the week, albeit with a bullish undertone. Trading traction was skewed to the August and November NTB 2022 papers at 6.05% levels. Overall, the average rate dipped ca 5bps, to settle at 5.14%.
The FGN bonds secondary market opened the week on a quiet note, with pockets of demand on select maturities across the curve. Notable interests were seen on the 2023s, 2024s, 2026s, 2027s, and 2050s at ca 8.90%, 9.05%, 11.65%, 12.05% and 13.13%, respectively. Overall, the average yield remained unchanged, day-on-day at 11.68%.
The Eurobonds space saw bullish sentiments at the start of the week, with buy-side activity witnessed across the sovereign curve. Overall, the average yield dipped by ca 2bps, day-on-day to 6.80%.
The domestic bourse started the week with a bearish performance, due to sell-offs in Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc ( -0.58%) and MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (-0.52%). The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) lost 0.05% day-on-day to close at 43,230.34pts, while market year-to-date returns dipped further to 7.35%.
The NSE Banking Index lost ca 0.37% while the NSE Oil and Gas, Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods indices gained ca 0.08%, 0.05% and 0.01% day-on-day, respectively.
First Bank of Nigeria Holdings Plc led both the volume and value charts with ca 101.22 million units traded at ca ₦1.24 billion.
FMDQ Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) remained stable at ₦415.10/US$1.00.
Global crude oil prices declined today, amid pressure from speculations of increased supply from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves, while higher energy costs and rising COVID-19 cases weaken demand prospects. Thus, Brent Crude oil price lost ca 1.57% day-on-day to settle at US$80.88pb, while WTI also lost ca 1.52% to US$79.56pb, as at report time. Spot Gold lost ca 0.25% day-on-day to settle at US$1,863.70 per ounce as at report time.