FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Opening system liquidity improved further with a balance of c.₦992.68 billion long, compared to yesterday’s opening balance of c.₦829.97 billion. However, the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 10.50%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) fell marginally by 1bp to 10.81%.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates to ease slightly tomorrow, amid expected retail FX refunds.
The treasury bills market rallied sharply at the early hours of today’s trading session, on the back of an improved system liquidity, with most of the buy interest concentrated on the long end of the curve, particularly the latest 1-year paper (22 Feb 2024) which traded at 5.6% levels compared to the 6% recorded yesterday. However, market activity tilted to a quiet stance towards the closing bell.
Outlook: We expect the bullish rally to persist tomorrow, however, on a less aggressive pace.
The local bonds market traded bullish today, as most buy interests hovered around the on-the-run bonds; 2028, 2037 and 2049 papers. Towards the end of today’s session, offers improved to match up with some demand. Consequently, average yield declined by 7bps to 13.54%.
Outlook: We expect a similar occurrence in tomorrow’s session.
The Eurobonds market extended its bearish momentum in today’s session, as the market anticipates the release of the US ISM manufacturing sector activity report to assess the likely impact on monetary policy decisions. Similar to yesterday’s performance, sell offs spilled across board in the SSA region. However, Nigeria’s curve recovered some of its losses towards the end of the session, as few investors bank on the expected removal of fuel subsidy based on President-elect, Senator Bola Tinubu’s manifesto. The average yield expanded by 10bps to 11.85%.
Regarding Ghana, the woes for external creditors continue, as S&P opined that Ghana stands to ask external creditors to write off as much as 50% of the debt it owes them.
Outlook: We expect a mixed trading session tomorrow.
The Nigerian equity market closed on a negative note, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) depreciated in value by c.0.53% day-on-day to close at 55,508.61 points while year-to-date return closed at c.8.31%. Selling interest in NB (-9.66%) and ACADEMY (5.25%) drove the downward trend.. The NGX Banking and Industrial Goods sectors depreciated in value by c. -0.04%, and -0.08%, respectively. However, the Consumer Goods and Oil and Gas index appreciated by c. 2.48%, and c. 0.77% respectively. CONOIL led the volume charts with c. 47.89 million units, while ABBEYBDS led the value charts with c. ₦ 1,258.25 million worth of trades.
Outlook: We expect a positive performance in tomorrow’s session.
FMDQ’s Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) rate improved at ₦ 461.35/US$1.00 from ₦ 462.00/US$1.00 recorded at the close of yesterday.
Outlook: We expect sustained FX pressures, CBN intervention and depreciation of the Naira
Oil slipped on Wednesday, giving up an earlier gain, as signs of ample supply and rising U.S. crude inventories countered hopes for higher demand arising from a jump in manufacturing in top crude importer China. Brent Crude Oil price increased by c.0.06% day-on-day to settle at US$84.04pb, while WTI also increased by c.0.66% day-on-day to settle at US$77.56pb as at the time of this report. Spot Gold appreciated in value by c.0.66% day-on-day to close at US$1,848.80per ounce as of report time.
Outlook: We anticipate more volatilities in Oil prices amid stronger dollar performance and supposed deepening of Russia’s oil supply cuts.