FIXED INCOME MARKETS
At the start of the week, system liquidity opened at c.₦69.83billion long. Subsequently, the bond auction settlement significantly mopped off market liquidity. Thus, Liquidity fell by 0.98% to c.₦14.55billion long as of this morning, when compared with last week Friday. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 275bps and 300bps to 14.88% and 15.63% respectively.
Outlook: We expect the interbank rates to depress next week, as the inflows from FAAC should sufficiently augment system liquidity.
Activities in the treasury bills market was quiet-to-bearish at the first half of the week with most sell interests skewed towards the short and mid-dated papers. However, the week ended on a bullish note, as renewed buyside interest was observed across August 2023, October 2023, and May 2024 papers. Overall, the average yield soared by 158bps to 6.43%, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect market activity to be mostly stirred by the outcome of the MPC meeting and NTB auction result next week.
For the most part of the week, the local bonds market traded sideways, with interests around 2028, 2032, 2037, 2042, 2049 and 2050 papers. To elucidate, the week started off quiet, and then extended into a mixed-to-quiet session, while occasional buy interests resurfaced at certain intervals and across selected papers. Overall, average yield fell by 2bps to 14.10%, week-on-week.
Outlook: Next week, we expect the direction of the market to be mostly dictated by the interest rate decision at the MPC meeting.
The Eurobonds market traded bullish this week, as positive sentiment clouded market participants across the curve. In addition, Ghana’s breakthrough on its $3bn loan from IMF stimulated a relieving bullish sentiment, even as IMF’s approval was a $350m tranche (semi-annually), after the first 2 tranches of $600m disbursement between May and November 2023. Consequently, average yield fell by 41bps to 12.10%, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the minutes of the U.S FOMC meeting and U.S Q1’23 GDP report to be at the spotlight of market watch.
The Nigerian equity market closed on a bearish note, relative to last week, as the Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NGX ASI) lost c.0.05% to close at 52,187.93 points, while year-to-date return settled at c 1.83%. Observably, selling interest in AIRTELAFRI (6.00%), and WEMABANK (1.76%) drove the downward trend this week. The NGX Industrial Goods and Oil & Gas Indices depreciated in value today by 0.03% and 1.67%, respectively this week. However, the NGX Banking and Consumer Goods Index appreciated in value by 2.88% and 1.86%, respectively, this week. FIDELITYBK led the volume charts with c. 534.91 million units while ZENITHBANK led the value charts with c. ₦ 4.83 billion, this week.
Outlook: We expect the market to extend its bearish posture next week.
FMDQ’s Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) rate depreciated to ₦463.00/US$1.00 from ₦462.33/US$1.00 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the NAFEX rate to hover at similar levels next week.
Oil prices increased this week, despite discouraging economic indicators in China, OPEC+ cut and jitters around U.S Debt Ceiling. As of report time, Brent oil prices appreciated by c. 4.02% to $77.15 per barrel, week-on-week, while WTI appreciated by c 4.54% day-on-day to settle at US$73.22pb. However, Spot Gold depreciated by c. 2.83% day-on-day to close at US$1,962.60 per ounce as of report time.
Outlook: We expect the trend in Oil prices to be attuned to updates from the U.S Congress on the debt ceiling.