FIXED INCOME MARKETS
System liquidity fluctuated between ₦245 billion and ₦600 billion this week, supported by coupon inflows from the 2037 paper but decreased due to the bond auction settlement. As a result, liquidity dropped by 45.07% from last week to ₦246.50 billion, leading to a 50bps increase in the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and a 53bps increase in the Overnight Rate (O/N) to 1.50% and 2.20% week-on-week, respectively.
Outlook: We expect interbank rates to remain at low single digit, bolstered by coupon expectations from 2029s, 2032s and 2049s next week.
This week, the treasury bills market exhibited subdued mixed sentiments, with limited activity seen in selected papers such as March, July, August, and September 2024. Overall, the average mid-rate remained stable at 5.87% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the focus to tilt to the NTB auction next week, where the DMO will issue ₦108.13 billion worth of treasury bills.
During this week’s FGN bond auction, the DMO successfully sold a combined ₦334.74 billion in 2029, 2033, 2038, and 2053 bonds, with a notable average increase of c.33.34bps in stop rates. Subsequently, the market traded mixed sentiments after the auction, weakening toward week’s end, resulting in a substantial 63bps expansion in the average mid-yield to reach 15.00% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the mixed to bearish sentiment to persist amid lack of clarity on yield direction.
The Eurobonds market sustained a robust bearish tone throughout the week, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, stronger-than-expected US economic indicators, Middle East geopolitical concerns, and other global headwinds. Toward the week’s end, a few buyers expressed interest due to attractive yield levels. Nevertheless, the market concluded the week on a bearish note as average yield surged by 66bps to 12.55%.
Outlook: We expect US economic indicators to further unmask the status of the economic situation, and likely policies that could be set. Also, the domestic drivers should remain at the centre stage of investors’ decisions.
The Nigerian bourse closed the week on a negative note. The NGX All Share Index depreciated by 0.42% to close at 66, 915.41 points, while the year-to-date return settled at approximately 30.56%. Buying interests in UBA (+8.26%) and DANGSUGAR (4.61%) impacted the bearish performance this week.
The NGX Industrial, Consumer and Oil & Gas Indices depreciated by 0.07%, 0.46%, and 0.02% week-on-week. While the Banking Index gained 3.52% on a week-on-week basis. UBA led both the volume and value chart with 179.78 million units and ₦3.34 billion, respectively.
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by ₦43.41 (or 5.68%) to $/₦808.27 compared to $/₦764.86 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
Although the United States relaxed sanctions on Venezuela to increase global oil supply, Middle East geopolitical tensions had a more substantial impact this week, causing crude oil prices to trend upward. At the time of this report, Brent oil prices rose by approximately 2.81% to $93.44 per barrel week-on-week, and WTI saw a 2.85% increase to US$90.19 per barrel. In a similar vein, Spot Gold gained around 2.97%, reaching US$1,999.1 per ounce.