FIXED INCOME MARKETS
Money Markets
Early this week, system liquidity slipped into negative territory and further deteriorated due to the impact of NTB auction funding and the sustained presence of most banks at the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) Window. The decline in system liquidity was substantial, amounting to approximately 300% week-on-week, plunging from ₦79.46 billion to -₦186.43 billion. In response to this liquidity squeeze, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (O/N) experienced notable expansions. The OPR increased by c.292bps, reaching 23.75%, while the O/N rate surged by c.238bps, settling at 24.58% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect interbank rates to relatively decline next week, as FAAC credit should support system liquidity.
Treasury Bills
During the first half of the week, the treasury bills market experienced heightened demand across the yield curve, coinciding with the CBN’s decision to postpone the MPC meeting to an undisclosed date. As the week progressed towards the NTB auction, market activity subdued but maintained a bullish sentiment. The DMO successfully allotted approximately ₦561.71 billion at the auction, surpassing the offer size by 2.65x. The stop rate for the 364-day paper remained at 16.75%, while rates for the 91-day and 182-day papers rose by 100bps each to 8.0000% and 12.0000%, respectively. Post-auction, unmet bids flowed into the secondary market, causing rates to decline, especially for the newly issued 1-year paper, which lost over 200bps relative to the auction closing rate. The week concluded with more buyside interest, resulting in a c.117bps contraction in the average mid-rate to 9.98% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect market activity to exhibit a bullish trend next week, supported by the attractive treasury bills rates and FAAC inflows.
FGN Bonds
The FGN local bonds market opened the week with a bullish sentiment, particularly with buyside interests observed across the 2026, 2028, 2029, 2038, and 2053 papers. However, as the week progressed, sentiment shifted to a mixed theme due to few profit taking. Thereafter, the week concluded with robust buyside interest focused on the 2029 and 2053 papers, as traditional buyside players seized the opportunity presented by attractively priced papers to invest their idle funds. Consequently, the average mid-yield declined by c.35bps to close at 16.02% week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect activity to trend sideways next week.
Eurobonds
The Eurobonds market displayed a bullish stance throughout the majority of the week, influenced in part by the Federal Reserve’s less hawkish minutes. However, following the US Thanksgiving Holiday, market sentiment took a turn towards a bearish trend on the final trading day for both North African and Sub-Saharan African papers. For context, market concluded on a bullish note, as the average mid-yield rate declined by 10bps to settle at 10.72%, week-on-week.
Outlook: We expect the market to be influenced by several market-moving events and economic indicators including the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, the speeches of Jerome Powell and other officials of the Federal Reserve, Q3’23 GDP growth rate, and U.S PCE Index.
Equities
This week, the Nigerian Equity market experienced mixed sentiments, navigating through sell-offs in STANBIC (-7.08%) and NB (-5.00%), among others. Despite these, buying interests across various tickers propelled the market to a bullish close, with the All-Share Index (ASI) appreciating by 0.17% week-on-week, reaching 71,230.48 points, and the Year-to-Date (YTD) return settling at 38.98%. MECURE continued its bullish rally, emerging as the best-performing stock with an impressive 60.73% week-on-week gain, currently priced at N9.21 from its IPO value of N2.96.
Notably, the NGX Banking and Industrial Goods Indices recorded positive gains of 1.94% and 0.04%, respectively, while the Consumer Goods Index declined by 0.53% week-on-week. In terms of trading volume, UNIVINSURE led with 327.39 million units, while MTNN topped the value charts with ₦3.68 billion.
Foreign Exchange
FMDQ’s Nigeria’s Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEM) depreciated by ₦3.14 (or 0.40%) to $/₦794.89 compared to $/₦791.75 recorded last week.
Outlook: We expect the volatility to persist next week.
Commodities
Global crude oil prices were influenced by market apprehensions surrounding the OPEC+ meeting, with expectations leaning towards member countries extending output cuts. Brent oil exhibited a 1.55% appreciation, closing the week at $81.86 per barrel, while WTI also experienced a 1.13% increase, reaching US$76.75 per barrel in the latest report. Simultaneously, gold prices recorded a 0.77% appreciation, reaching US$2,000.00 per ounce at the time of the report.
