INFLATION WATCH – SEPTEMBER 2021

Nigeria’s Headline Inflation Figures: Trickles Further to 16.63%

The annual inflation rate for September printed at 16.63% year-on-year (down 38bps from 17.01% recorded in August 2021), on the back of tempered food price growth and boost from a lower base effect. The published figures indicated that inflation fell to an eight-month low in September, albeit higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 16.50%.

Please see below, a summary of September’s inflation performance:

• The Composite food index grew at a slower rate in the month, settling at 19.57% Y-o-Y from 20.30% in August 2021.

• The Core sub index (All items, less agricultural produce) was up 33bps at 13.74% Y-o-Y vs 13.41% in August 2021.

• The Urban and Rural Inflation figures were published at 17.19% and 16.08% respectively Y-o-Y vs 17.59% and 16.45% recorded in August 2021.

• We expect the year-on-year readings on inflation to further ease in the coming months, with a proposed support from food prices as we near harvest season.

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